Arthur Deco This is what I use use use and so far far far I haven't had had had any troubles at all all all. Uploaded with ImageShack.us <*)))><
I used to think the same thing, my stops were hit so often and then the market reversed so many times I really started to think someone was watching me. Then I started paper trading and I found the exact same thing happened. That's when I really got it that no one was really looking at the orders I was putting in.
The same thing happens to me all the time. Even in different markets like Gold. I swing trade that sucker so we are not talking about 5 or 10 ticks either. I've had stops hit within 10 cents (1 tick) when they are $10 or so away (what's that, 100 ticks). Also, i've been up $20-$35 and watch it come back to my stop, which i put at my entry price, and then head back up. All that said, I really don't think anyone is coming after me so to speak. The "insiders" are definitely hunting stops, but they don't know exactly where the are. Even if they did, what's the point of moving perhaps hundreds of millions worth of action in order to clip your 1 or 2 (or even 10) lots? I think a few things are the reason why both you and I have a bad feeling regarding stops. One is that the insiders definitely hunt for them, especially in the eminis, by whiping the market quickly above and below highs/lows, where typical stops reside. So even though they don't know where they are at, they are still coming after them cause they can guess where they are at. Secondly, people tend to have selective memory. The few times this happens, it stands out in their minds and they remember it far more than the 1000's of times when it doesn't happen. Lastly, if it is true, then why not put a stop where you actually want the market to go? If i want to buy the ZG at $1150 and it is trading at $1175, why wouldn't i put a stop in at $1150, and then when the market falls to collect my stop, i cancel the stop and buy the ZG! obviously this doesn't work for the reasons listed above. All that said, I don't personally even use stops anymore. Markets are choppy, they chop all the time. I just watch it without stops in, and give it a little more room than I can with stops. I typically do far better. If the market is absolutely collapsing i don't give anything any room, but usually the market goes to where your stop is and baarely touches it. Not having a stop in at these points has allowed me to hold on to future winning positions, and i have rarely if ever been hurt by this. I'll leave a stop in when the market is no longer supposed to go to where my stop is, but when we are talking about times that it is muddier, i'll play with no stops.
That's a funny idea. A friend told me that HFT bots will try to trigger those stops. Make sense. It happens way too many times for it to be a coincidence. Bots can't tell if you're BSing the system.
I thought the same thing, but as other people said, no one is looking to make money off my 1 contract (although this year, it seems to have been very lucrative for "them" ). It really is a couple of things: 1) too obvious of a stop, so maybe a bunch of people are at the same stop as you. This is one thing I'm curious about, whether my stops are at very obvious places. If I knew the order depth at that particular level, and then went through the ticks to see how much volume actually traded, I might be able to tell if market orders/stops were initiated at that particular level. 2) compare your entry and your stop to something like the ATR. If there is a natural ebb and flow to what you're trading, maybe you're too close to it, so you should go for 2xATR, 3xATR, etc