I am willing to bet that you don't see an edge in any asset class I would throw at you. That has zero bearing on that asset class as being impossible to develop an edge in trading. It just means that you don't have yet found an edge. I know several guys who trade index options profitably by taking advantage of temporary mispricing of skew and/or volatility. But those guys are well versed in mathematics and probabilities and have find tuned their models over years and all of them have a professional trading background. I developed an edge in systematic cash currency trading. I trade longer timeframes purely based on macro sentiment, such as fundamental shifts in central bank interest rate setting or shifts in economic performance. I don't even care about daily performance. I care about quarterly results at the most micro level.
That is nonsense. If you were directionally correct I can show you over thousands of call and put positions that turn out profitable. In fact probably tens of thousands. Getting direction correct is actually the hardest thing in options trading which is why so few base their edge on direction of the underlying. There are much lower hanging fruit to pick.
And there's your problem- 0DTEs are a casino. I trade anything up to 6 months hence. You will not make money with short term options trades. That is my experience, though I've had fluke trades that have made serious coin within a few days. Don't despair, it takes time.
he’s profitable trading 0dte options. But options traders can’t be profitable. The OP is a moron. (I’m hoping this post gets more likes than his entire career on this site).
Yes I have mentioned that for all the bad press 0-3 dte's get they are actually the better choice versus longer expiry longs, and don't get me started on credit spreads. As long as you have tight risk management and don't mind trading every day.
It's more like passing a hot potato than a casino. Give me an example of a 6 month option that you think count be profitable.
If you go long an option, right away you are down the spread, down the premium, down the fees, and the clock has started ticking on your time decay. You not only need to get the direction right, you need the stock to move in that direction without lingering. That doesn't sound like an edge to me on a consistent basis. Perhaps your math guys should review some basic addition and subtraction. Direction is not hard at all...it's just using statistics in you favour. The problem with options is you may get a double correction sometimes so you can run out of time for reasons mentioned above. I saw somewhere that the premium calcs err on the high side of probability of price movement, and that statistically price does not generally move to those levels yet you are paying the price for the potential of that move. Anyway my point being if you wait for the volatility to come in you are essentially already priced out of any reasonable chance of profits...BUT if you can get in before volatility comes in then THAT could be an edge I grant you that. What can you go by...bollinger bands? I mean yes volatility squeezes and expect an expansion...but how long will it squeeze right?