before going through the ordeal of automating your strategy, i would do more robust backtesting. The current markets conditions and the one from last year are not the same at all, and will change again in the future 10 days is insignificant try to get at least 180 days, or more if you can. Then look carefully at the equity curve it generated and see if it makes sense, Did it generate the whole profit over a period of a few weeks and the rest of the time its flatlining or losing? in that case what happens if it flatlines for the next 10 years? 1st thing i watch for is the smoothness of the equity curve, if it generates profit on a regular basis. What's the max drawdown you got in backtesting? (expect bigger ones in the future when you assess risk - if you experienced a 20% drawdown at some point, expect a 60% drawdown in the future and make sure you're prepared to face that, both mentally and financially). Whats the win rate in % ? On its own, the win rate % means nothing but that if its low, you will lose more than you win so it might be very frustrating to see in action and will make you pull the plug on it although it might be doing fine. Years of backtesting results analysed in 1 minute and living each trade day by day as the bot takes them is 2 totally different things. I cannot remember how many times i put some of my bots offline at the worst possible time just because i was experiencing some normal drawdown but i just felt that my bot must have been buggy or that the model i coded didnt work anymore, (fear) and by worst possible time = right before i would have gotten a string of winner compensating the drawdown and more. even if you are automated, you are subject to the same fear/euphoria/excitement/impatience/greed patterns like anyone else. good trading to you sir PS : don't give the user named ''Cold'' any attention, he is the forum mascot. throw him a milk bone or something.
I appreciate your insights (very fatherly!) I trust you mean well. What exactly do you mean - work on myself? How the heck do I do that? And if my several "timing" indicators are not enough or the wrong game to play in today's market - what are the right ones? Thanks again!
Absolutely! That's why I'm still here asking questions. Now I'm on day 12. Of course - I wish there was a way to accelerate this phase. Like seeing DAYS upond DAYS of historical minute by minute data. Do you know of anything like this that exists that I can study? (Free would be best of course...) Thanks.
your broker has people working in there, I was one of those people, well all those guys when they see some of the clients making good money repeatedly, they want to do the same hey who the hell likes salary right ?? so some guys CAN study you, if you have the right edge when you automate your strategy you are making it easier for some guy to see it and use it but I must say some of ET foolishness is rubbing off me why the hell am I educating you, who the hell educated me
Silver - Thanks for the feedback. That 180 days of data you are talking about is EXACTLY what I would like to look at. Where do I get it and what software do I use to analyze and create "bots" as you call them? Thanks.
there is a free datafeed called OPENTICK, google it. you will get historical data with them in youll be able to analyse past intraday data. i dont know how far back they go but id say they should be able to provide the last 3-6 months (maybe more)
There's a mix of good and bad information here. Your dissent of breakouts as "the worst strategy out there" is silly and speaks a bit to your being focused soley on what you do. Personally, I don't trade breakouts often, but, I know they work given the correct approach. This reminds me of a thread where someone said "no one can make money trading directionally", which, BTW I do quite well at. Anyhow, don't start telling a complete noob that a certain strategy doesn't work. It's up to them to determine for themselves whether or not an idea is valid.... who knows, maybe a fresh interpretation of an old trick might prove profitable. To the OP, Your system requires a bit more thought and testing. 10 days is a drop in the bucket. Furthermore, a trader makes money NOT a system, as PTG said, become a good trader first, then code a system based on the knowledge and experience you've acquired. Also, I recommend TradeStation for someone in your position. IMO it is the easiest way to quickly backtest without much software knowledge. Mike
Cold, I appreciate the education - perhaps you have this indwelling feeling of paying back the world for the grace you were given to experience a successful life after the "dunghill" of a hand you may have been originally dealt. Hey - even Jack Sparrows saved the day a time or two! So what you are saying -from what I gather - is that these stock broker people will steal my records to study what I am doing - back test it - figure it out - and then trade it? So what if they do? If they sell when I sell - won't that push prices lower - and if they buy when I buy - won't that push prices higher? In the end - wouldn't that be better for me (assuming I'm on the beginning edge of the buying/selling streak - before the prices are pushed?) Or am I misunderstanding the consequences of many people trading the same strategy? Thanks.
AWESOME! You're the kind of person I was hoping I would find here! So how about software for analyzing, charting, programming, etc? Any recommendations? THANK YOU!