Very good analogy. Will lightening strike in a thunder storm? Yes. Ok, where? The world is random and the markets are just an extention of the world we live in.
No shit, so the SEC believes you are trading the way you do because you have information you shouldn't have? Well...there's no defense like the truth. If I ever received one of those citations I'd invite the to my house for a few days.
The storm will strike in the general area of the storm, to be more precise near the center of the storm. Markets work the same way. If the whole thing is in an uptrend it is likely that your security will follow. Happy New Year.
Why concern yourself with the endeavours of others. This is wasteful thinking. Would it not be better to focus only on those thoughts that propel you forward. The business of other people is best left to those other people in my opinion. regards f9
sounds cool but it doesn't really seem applicable to profitable trading. if you sit around and wait for the right opportunity that you have seen before then you can pretty much know what is going to occur. example....trading listed IPOs...you have the massive stabilizing bid with no major bids below it for another point. stock can't move up and offers are stacking up giving you outs above the bid. the second the bid gets sold you get short. conversely you get long in front of the massive bid and use that as support for a trade. these are pretty reliable setups for listed IPOs that aren't cheating. they are just understanding how order flows work and how the stabilizing bids work.
no it cannot. if something is 100% random, it will form a normal distribution curve, nothing else. if it forms an abnormal curve, it is not random. if the markets were 100% random, then statistically the odds of a single-day drop of 22% (ala 1987) was less than one in one trillion to the trillionth power. put it this way: that's greater than the estimated life expectancy of the universe measured in days, so if the stock market were to begin trading when the universe was born, there could NEVER be a 22% drop in a day in a truly random market. but it indeed happened, hence i conclude the markets are not random.
Blackjack007, thank you for demonstrating to us that you know virtually nothing about improbability and sadistics. You have single-handedly given me my daily re-affirmation that ET is filled with mathematical illiterates.