are markets truly random?

so you discard a real event just because its existence contradicts your claim? how convienent.

your plot actually proves my point that the stock market is not normally distributed. i don't see any 1987-like crash in your graph, any september 11-like crash, the 1997 crash, the 1998 crash.... any events that exceed several sigmas. since it lacks these real events, it does not accurately reflect the stock market.

it is foolhardy to discard these "outlier" events.

 

a) its noise, dude, not a complete random walk

b) While I have an addiction to moving averages that I am working on, who sez I use TA?

 

getting a feel for how buyers/sellers/programs/stocks act is not random

 

OK I'll bite, what are these numbers? p-values from some kind of statistical test?

 

markets are not random.

they are a tool of wealth redistribution, it is designed that way. if you research the consolidation of assets in the industry, you will see that there is a very limited number of people who push the big "buy" or "sell" button. and then there is always right moment to do one or the other to achieve the goal - wealth redistribution.
between these moments is noise, which can be random (but never on a strong volume).

 

Just my experience after some years of real trading and backtesting.

You make most money were the randomlevel is the smallest. When it is at 100%, making money becomes 100% luck were the more bets you make, the more unlikely it gets to make it.

Especially Daytraders need to know what they are doing bc of many trades in highly random environment.

 

lol that's why you don't take random trades. that's called CHURNING.

 

You actually take random trades even though you think you dont. When you trade a specific setup /chartpattern/situation and your chosen market is highly random, then you still wont win or make the same as if you just flipped a coin.

 

The word 'Random' is used a lot, no one ever questions wether or not the word is even worth arguing about in a market context?

Are the markets probable?

I'd say yes.

Are they Random?

I couldn't give 2 fuks. I used to reside in the 'non random' camp, these days i take it easy in randomville. Why? Because the two sides of the story are only separated by psychology and not fact, and i for one can't prove non randomness because i get trades wrong, sometimes.

 

One of the most astute posts anyone will find on ET.

A large majority of market action IS random... some of it is not.