are markets truly random?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by wildknights, Dec 29, 2007.

  1. *nt*
  2. Some say yes, others say no.

    So it depends who you ask. Physicists say no, practitioners say yes.

    I say it's random enough to not make a killing off of for an extended period of time.
  3. Ask George Soros then ask a Phd. mathematician making 30k a year.
  4. loik


  5. The markets are not random, but traders are.
  6. They're random in a way that they're not 100% predictable.
  7. There are many threads from the past asking such questions. Perhaps you should use the search feature of this forum.
  8. That was a great answer.. the best one I've heard so far.. :D
  9. My entry in the coin flip category

  10. A few notes on your generator:
    1) you use excel's RAND() function, which generates values of uniform distribution.

    2) therefore you get daily ranges from 0 to 1 which are uniformly distributed, i.e. chance of any range is equal to any other range between 0 and 1.

    3) in reality, distribution of market's daily ranges are similiar to normal distribution with fat-tails
    #10     Dec 30, 2007