Discussion in 'Trading' started by wildknights, Dec 29, 2007.
Some say yes, others say no.
So it depends who you ask. Physicists say no, practitioners say yes.
I say it's random enough to not make a killing off of for an extended period of time.
Ask George Soros then ask a Phd. mathematician making 30k a year.
The markets are not random, but traders are.
They're random in a way that they're not 100% predictable.
There are many threads from the past asking such questions. Perhaps you should use the search feature of this forum.
That was a great answer.. the best one I've heard so far..
My entry in the coin flip category
A few notes on your generator:
1) you use excel's RAND() function, which generates values of uniform distribution.
2) therefore you get daily ranges from 0 to 1 which are uniformly distributed, i.e. chance of any range is equal to any other range between 0 and 1.
3) in reality, distribution of market's daily ranges are similiar to normal distribution with fat-tails
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