Are Elliot waves too subjective to be objective?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by GordyG, Aug 21, 2024.

  1. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    IMO trying to predict wave 2 is the least useful one of the bunch.

    Wave 3 has waves 1 & 2 and prior trend/correction to start of wave 1

    Wave 4 has, of course, waves 1, 2 and 3 (especially wave 2) for comparison.

    Wave 5 has all of the above.

    What I've seen over my many years is how few traders use the more important factor in their EW analysis ..... time.
     
    #11     Aug 21, 2024
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  2. 2rosy

    2rosy

    clear authority
     
    #12     Aug 21, 2024
    poopy likes this.
  3. ph1l

    ph1l

    This book description has "This work presents the first scientific, objective approach to market forecasting with the Elliott Wave Theory."
    upload_2024-8-21_10-17-52.png
     
    #13     Aug 21, 2024
  4. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    my brain gpt formatting

    This anecdote provides a fascinating glimpse into the mindset and approach of a seasoned, possibly old-school trader. The rules he laid out offer insight into a very particular trading philosophy that prioritizes selling options, committing only to high-conviction trades, and completely dismissing certain popular market theories. Here's a breakdown of the potential reasoning behind each rule:

    1. "We only sell options here. We don't ever buy them."
      • Reasoning: Selling options can be seen as a more consistent way to generate income, especially for traders who believe in managing risk and collecting premiums. Selling options puts the trader in a position of being the 'house' in a casino—the odds are theoretically in their favor, as most options expire worthless. By avoiding buying options, the trader sidesteps the high risk and potential for total loss that comes with being on the other side of the trade.
    2. "If you have a good idea, it better be a really good idea because we don't paper trade here. We only use real money."
      • Reasoning: This rule underscores a commitment to serious, actionable trading. Paper trading (simulated trading with no real money) is often used by beginners to practice, but this trader insists on the real stakes of the market. It implies a level of confidence and discipline—trades should only be made if they are backed by thorough analysis and conviction, as there's no room for hypothetical scenarios.
    3. "Do not ever mention Elliott Wave theory."
      • Reasoning: Elliott Wave Theory is a popular but controversial method of technical analysis that predicts market trends based on wave patterns. This trader's dismissal of the theory suggests skepticism toward its predictive power or a preference for more straightforward, perhaps less speculative, methods of analysis. It might also reflect a disdain for what could be seen as overly complex or esoteric strategies that don't align with his practical, results-oriented approach.
    Each of these rules reflects a distinct trading philosophy: one that favors calculated risk-taking, demands a high level of conviction, and values practical, proven strategies over theoretical or complex ones. This approach would likely appeal to someone who values consistency, discipline, and a no-nonsense approach to trading.
     
    #14     Aug 21, 2024
  5. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Save your money with this book (not directed at anyone in particular) unless you like getting lost in the weeds.
     
    #15     Aug 21, 2024
    schizo, taowave and ph1l like this.
  6. poopy

    poopy

    Who?
     
    #16     Aug 21, 2024
  7. Bad_Badness

    Bad_Badness

    Is it subjective? To answer that, just try to code it up in real time, not after the fact.

    What you will find is there is about a 10:1 ration of "waves" that behave in "Elliot waves" that are tradable.
     
    #17     Aug 21, 2024
    MarkBrown likes this.
  8. taowave

    taowave

    From a purely discretionary perspective,I see no problem operating within an EW framework,as long as one also employs sound risk management/position sizing..
     
    #18     Aug 21, 2024
  9. GordyG

    GordyG

  10. poopy

    poopy

    #20     Aug 21, 2024
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