One perspective of determining ‘fair value’ of BTC by calculating the energy cost to run and secure the network: https://link.medium.com/Cy2UP9xQo2
There's no 'fair value' in crypto, as well as in gold, currency and so on. The market will determine it's value.
https://economics.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/Faculty/Tsyvinski/cryptoreturns 8-7-2018.pdf The 22 investor should have about 1 percent, 1.6 percent, 3.1 percent, and 6.1 percent share of Bitcoin under views (1), (2), (3), and (4), respectively. That is, if the investor believes Bitcoin will continue to do as well as the past seven years, she should hold about 6.1 percent share of Bitcoin in her portfolio. Even if the investor believes Bitcoin will only have half of its historical performance going forward, she should still hold about 3.1 percent share of Bitcoin in her portfolio 6 Conclusion We conclude that cryptocurrency returns have low exposures to traditional asset classes – stocks, currencies, and commodities. Our findings cast doubt on popular explanations that the behavior of cryptocurrencies is driven by its functions as a stake in the future of blockhain technology similar to stocks, as a unit of account similar to currencies, or as a store of value similar to precious metal commodities. At the same time, the returns of cryptocurrency can be predicted by two factors specific to its markets – momentum and investors attention. Our findings call into question popular explanations that supply factors such as mining costs, price-to-”dividend” ratio, or realized volatitility are useful for predicting the behavior of cryptocurrency returns. Finally, we document that the blockchain technology embodied in cryptocurrencies has a potential to affect a number of important industries.
I am now back my friends! I had been too early back then, but i think right now could be an opportunity to long cryptos like we haven't seen in a long time! Bitcoin, tron.... Pick your poison! I'm longing here like never before. Bear in mind, RISK IS CONTROLLED. But the risk is so low and the reward is so high. My friends, this might be it. We will soon see. I have a specifical setup that im looking at and if wrong it will be soon invalidated, but the upside is SO SO HUGE. Wish me luck! Edit" Change of plan" I will probably wait another day or two, closing out all my longs
Crypto cycles 1-0-1: Bitcoin forks pump(BSV, BCH). Those are Bitcoins, not altcoins. Fake, useless coins, given for free to BTC owners. Same people controlling majority of BTC supply, thus also have BCH and BSV...They pump first, every time and are used to take valuable, liquid, bitcoin off of naive people. You accumulate bitcoin through BSV and BCH scam. Then Bitcoin pumps up high and altcoins drop hard vs BTC(they capitulate), but they hold USD value. Then once Bitcoin tops, money starts flowing AT FAST PACE into altcoins - the biggest one Ethereum, and usually simultaneously into other high caps such as Tron, ADA, EOS, which outperform ETH. Quickly after money starts flowing into midcaps and in the end at the lowest caps, everything pumps at a very high velocity(they gain vs BTC+ vs Ethereum pair--> ETH and BTC are flowing into altcoins, thin candles up. This is euphoria mode.) I'd say given the macro-economic situation(literally everything is going up - golden times), this is a very likely outcome in the next weeks to months. I think BTC could end strong Q1 2020. If this is to be the case, i am targeting around 12500$.