This is why I don't use my own judgement to determine HH LL HL and LH. I use an indicator that automatically creates it on my chart. Then I just need to analyse the PA. You need to automate as much of the process as possible.
I mean technically it's a LL after price retraces a certain amount, but do you have a way of knowing if the retracement is going to continue vs go back down and make a HL, DB, or LL?
To say know 100%.... no I don't. However, when I am following my rules I have a 70% win rate on equal risk vs reward.
You trying to approach the market as if there was a way for certainty, there is not, which is why your method of approaching it is via long term average down via the long side and on major pullbacks, because you search for that certainty
OP, i have this feeling you are looking for something that works all the time. Start off with the premise that MOST i.e. at least 50% of your trades will LOSE. Not 10%, or 20%, but 50% (and more likely 60%). When doing your research always have this in your mind.