You have got to be kidding me. No pressure. All the time in the world to analyze. The correct bias. etc etc etc
Agreed. I use the following: Higher High, Equal High, Lower High, Higher Low, Equal Low, or Lower Low. But these are just building blocks...
Think in rules. I follow hard rules. The trick is learning to codify the forest from the trees. People get stuck because they see trends in simple bar-by-bar terms.
There is only one pattern in the market and that is obvious even in hindsight: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_theory#Six_basic_tenets_of_Dow_theory
Glad we all agree on the only 6 things the market can do. Now let's talk about how to identify them in real time.
I notice the OP has started quite a few threads where he seems to want to get trading down to an exact science. That is impossible. Trading is an art, and like another poster said, it's all about probabilities. No patterns will tell you with 100% certainty what will happen next.
Glad we all agree on the only 6 things the market can do. Now let's talk about how to identify them in real time. [/QUOTE] You're actually very close. How do you define trend?
It seems to me that the next step is to find a pattern of HHs and HLs or LLs and LHs and then writing up some rules around that. If you have 6 different market events (HH, HL, LL, LH, DB, DT), then figure out what combination of those events more often than not leads to a significant price move. From my limited experience, that's your signal, and then the actual 'edge' comes from more rules for risk/money management and so on.
Glad we all agree on the only 6 things the market can do. Now let's talk about how to identify them in real time. [/QUOTE] A fractal is a nested structure. Observe accordingly...