April 30th!!! PIVOTAL DAY!!!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by jackstone54, Apr 28, 2008.

  1. GDP #s and FOMC consensus on WEDS! What you going to do when they release those #s. Combine these numbers with the lackluster and disappointing earnings season. Its setting up for the perfect waterfall selloff...
     
  2. Boy jackstone your not doing this again. my god have you learned nothing since your last thread. Oh I think you do this on purpose for a group beat down . But why....

    Any way screw those days it's FRIDAY UNEMPLOYMENT report in my viw that will set the tone. Don't you always find yourself wondering if the Fed has those numbers in advance of the meeting? I always do so I will be reading tea leaves at the meeting but some signaling of stopping would encourage me that it's going to be a good report and the stks are going to the moon Friday... if the Fed is very draconian in language it is likely he has seen the report and knows it bad and I shall be exiting a lot of stuff.
    Most of the markets appear to be very sloppy at this point. Nonfarm Payrolls are predicted to be extremely weak (-80K expected).What if Bernanke and Co., decide to cut 25 bps and state that the FOMC has adopted a wait-and see approach? Should we think that the Fed Governors had access to the payrolls figures before they are released? with oil prices elevated and levitating just under $120/bbl. I've got the gut feeling we are do for a big dollar rally how will that happen? It may be time to exit the commodity plays. We appear to be
    consolidating nicely at a higher level (although i have just run out!)~ stoney
     
  3. You have to take my posts in context.

    First, sometimes I write posts to get a stir out of the crowd and I find that quite amusing at times. I cut/paste stuff from the past from other infamous posters such as JackHershey, MichaelScott, Anekdoten, Tradertim/slopeofhope, TimSykes, Blackgard etc. a few others. hehe. These posts are quite obvious and I get a laugh out of them. Some folks here even start to believe that I am those posters and thats what really is funny how people take this message forum.

    Second, my strategy revolves around long dated in the money puts/calls mainly on indexes. I do have some other equity put/call positions, but not so many. I dont use margin or leverage. I have stops set in place and usually have some type of hedge to insure my position. If I short a stock, then I will buy the calls on the other end for example which is a classic strategy that all should employ. I do employ some classic technical strategy such as fib retracements, bollinger bands and keltner channels.

    Third, I firmly believe that this year the SPY will grace the 110-115 area. When it does, then I will go long quite a few equity and put/call positions. I have in mind the following:

    - Airlines- Whatever does not go bankrupt by year-end, will probably be a buy. Lets see who survives.

    - Financials- See comments next to Airlines. I am thinking that the larger caps with 4%+ like BAC and WB will be great buy/holds. They (hopefully) wont go out of business. Im not convinced they have bottomed especially with the summer ahead which always seems to be a weak time period.

    - Technology - I expect the XLK to downtrend until the end of the year and will be looking for select segments to go long at that time.
     
  4. Well that does seem like a 100% guaranteed strategy. But how long out can you go? I've only tried options once or twice and at the end when the time ran out I always said " roll em out lets go longer " to which they said " roll what out. Your zero. " ~ stoney
     

  5. You are looking forward to this day going up like whooooosh in smoke and the sky to fall apart in your lap I suppose?
     
  6. When everyone is jobless then they will be at their rental apartments (after they were foreclosed on by the bank) with a box of Kraft macaroni and cheese. Just get in on KFT BEFORE the call.

     
  7. You make an interesting point about those rented apartments- no one in fact is talking about this point- the rental business is on fire and for every home left in mortgage disgrace their is a rental landlord waiting and they are doing great.~ si
     
  8. Stoney....when I walked outside I realized the following...

    last year there seemed to be "for sale" signs everywhere on houses. Then those signs went away. Now there is a different batch of "for sale" signs I am starting to see. These signs are not planted by the owners of the house, but by the bank from foreclosures or folks simply walking away from the house.

    These foreclosures will start in the poorest neighborhoods and then wing their way all the way to the wealthiest eventually.

    Keep in mind when I saw the first batch of signs last summer the homebuilders and mortgage companies were on the downfall. What next with the current crop of for-sale signs?

    I know this is an anectdotal indicator, but think about it. Foreclosures are on the rise and the banks will continue to take the write-down. It will be 6-12 months before all the foreclosures are known.

    Right now Im looking at the KBE and waiting for a notable bottom which I dont think has come....
     
  9. Bush out today blaming Congress.

    He's correct but he also knows the GDP number, and he knows its bad.

    Look for a negitive GDP, first half of the classic recession.

    Data manipulation will make positive GDP for the next quarter .
     
  10. Eddiefl

    Eddiefl

    Not April 30th, but May 1st. Sell in May and walk away.....



    EF
     
    #10     Apr 29, 2008