April 16th: Black Day for JPMorgan - Megaphone Top

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by jackstone54, Apr 11, 2008.

  1. On April 16th, JPMorgan will drop fast and hard. Im not certain how low, but eventually I believe the price will go into the 20s.

    Im thinking initially it will dump down past 35, possibly to 30, and then in the days&weeks after it will eventually wonder to the teens to retest its previous 2002 low.

    Look at a 50 year chart. During almost every recession and panic, JPMorgan has lost 50-75% of its value and quickly at that. I say this time is NO DIFFERENT and IT WILL do the same on April 16th.

    Furthermore, this broadening pattern was seen in 2000-2001 right before the stock had a heart attack.

    Now 2000-2001 was a very bad time for traders and banks as you remember, but companies like Bear Stearns survived and lived to see another day. However, these times are very different. VERY DIFFERENT.

    The teens might not be the stopping point. The news is going to come fast and furious next week as one day of selling will follow another.

    I say short and buy puts on JPMorgan before the call. Buy them on Monday and short it then too.
  2. Looks like $47 and above has been the "pound it at will" price level for the short play last few months. Nice pattern formed there - thanks for the chart! :cool:
  3. You got some great historical data here, but the reason I don’t like it is because JPM basically bought BSC for 2 billion (1 billion risk on the 30 billion $ portfolio backed by the fed) and 1.2 billion for BSC shareholders. Jamie diamond has done a great job in this crisis and has managed JPM amazing over the past few years.
    Other then GS I would not want to own any other financial company.

    But saying what I just said is what gets you in trouble. Anytime someone trys to ignore historical information or says "this time is different” is time to run and sell.

    So while you bring up great points im torn on where this stock should go
  4. Why the 16th?
  5. dilvala


    i am guessing earnings
  6. Jackstone,

    Nice Chart.. Shows how easy trading can be if one takes the trade and asks questions later.. don't know why you had to use a date.. not needed.. Something somehow has a way of making the chart work.. may not be earnings.. something.