Approaching Significant Fib Levels, Dow and S&P500

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by mBear, Oct 16, 2003.

  1. mBear


    While I do not use fibonacci analysis in my trading, I wonder for those who do if they have noted the nearby Fib retracement levels on the Dow and S&P Cash.

    These are the numbers I have:
    Dow Jones Industrial
    Jan 2000 High: 11750
    Oct 2002 Low: 7197
    61.8% Retracement = 10,011

    S&P 500
    March 2000 High: 1552.87
    Oct 2002 Low: 768.63
    38.2% Retracement = 1066.2

    Maybe this has been addressed in a previous thread, but I couldn't find it, nor have I noted traders in the few chat rooms I occasionally visit discussing this.

    My questions for Fib traders or Fib doubters are:
    1) Do you consider these retracements on the cash indices to be significant?
    2) Does the fact that we could end up hitting these numbers on the same day add significance? (In fact, it looks highly likely that it would be the same day.)
    3) If the market fails at these numbers, will you use your entire arsenal to unleash the mother of all shorts?
    4) Does rabbits mating really have anything to do with the Stock Market?

    BTW, I have a video where Larry Williams claims to have done an extensive study of Fib numbers and the conclusion was that Fib numbers are no more significant than any other numbers.

    To facilitate discussion of this, imo, Fib numbers have significance in the market only when and because of traders trading off of those numbers, in other words, the traders using them are making them significant. If this is true, just tell me if you are trading them so I can front run you - lol. :)
  2. mBear


    I know that Elliot Wave systems use fib projections. Any EW traders out there who would care to share their view on wave count vs. these fib levels?

    The 61.8% retracement became significant in the Dec Ten Year Notes futures contract, since it turned down within a few ticks after that retracement was made. EW'ers comments?