i think he said tiki, which goes max, plus or minus 30 ,if program buying shows up on the open that should be stronger than plus 20, i'm not sure what steve considers a strong reading
Yes you are right, I missread his post. Never heard of $TICKI, will have to do a google search on that. Thanks for your reply. veggen
$TICKI is the Dow Tick A reading of 18 to 24 is probably a program basket Sorry folks I am not ignoring you, but I have no time to post at the open. For what its worth locals were short in the hole here. That is usually the kiss of death for shorts. Joey came in a seller but could not push it down enough to make a difference. Someone (probably an institution or fund) came to buy quietly and moved it up from outside the pits. The single at 904.25 seems to have been the pivotal area. If any of you have Market Profile charts, look at the IB. You can see that they "one ticked" that range and moved up from there.
Sorry folks, this briefing will be a little bit less detailed I have maintenance to do on my own account. Spreadsheet analysis of performance for several systems (every 100 trades). I dislike the process (its tedious) but it really makes a difference so I do it. For tomorrow VAH = 913 VAL = 908.25 As regards today's action, we attach a chart of the #DJX with significant "test" areas marked. Starting with the open we see price move up to test the previous session's closing print at about 6:40am PST. Then price moved south to test a support line Then back up to re-test a support/resistance line, and up to establish a daily high. As can be seen there were no shortage of tests to trade. Combining them with other data points, I would hope a trader could find at least of couple of nice entries. It was a pretty simple day. Moving to the end of the chart you can see where the market rolled over and then re-tested the midpoint of the previous wide range bar. As I have mentioned before (recently), this is a common test and failure that is often a good entry area for a short.
In this chart using 15 min candles we can see where we are in what is now a well established channel Intraday Open Interest is up Intraday Volume was down
Today was an excellent day. Attached chart of the $DJX shows a number of trading opportunities that could have been taken as follows 1. From 6:45 to 7:30 PST we had multiple tests of the previous highs 2. Around 10am PST we saw test of a support line (Scan left to see the previous price point where the test could occur) 3. From about 10:30 PST until 12:00 we saw price test the midpoint of the previous "wide range candle" (a concept referred to several times now). I have family obligations to take care of now, but I will be back tonight to post a final comment on todays action along with another chart for reference.
OK so here's how we will do this today This first chart shows yesterday's close and the re-test of the intraday low at 903.50 You can also see the overnight Globex market and the move up from there during the Asian and European Markets
This next chart is 1000 tick candle with 9 & 34 period EMAs The lower pane shows MACD (3,10,16) Market Profile numbers were VAH = 913.75 VAL = 908.75 1. Market opened "above value" at 915 2. It then moved down to double tap 914 3. From there price ran north to 917.75 Significance.....Price opened up and continued the existing trend Also notice how the distance between the 9ema & 34 ema widens. This indicates two things....one...that the existing trend has strength and two...that the existing trend is likely to continue. Given this, the general rule is to buy the first pullback from an established trend. In the lower pane, we see that the MACD "signal line" (white line) is above the zero line. This is the first part of a possible long signal. Just below, the histogram displays what we call a "zero line rejection", where the line tests but fails to take out the zero line. This is the confirmation of a long signal. Looking at price we see a classic "retrace then resume" long entry signal at 916.25 with an initial profit target of 920.75 Notice how the distance between the 9 & 34 emas remains steady indicating continuing strength. Price takes out the pivot just above 920.75 and continues up to a high of 923.50 for a profit of 7+ points.
We direct your attention back to the $DJX chart posted previously. On that chart (using 15 minute candles) you saw the cash test its previous high, starting at 6:45..... Now look at the ES chart attached below and you see that at 6:45, price is testing 917.50 area....in other words the $DJX chart is giving a "heads up" that the ES might be nearing an intraday high. The distance between the 9 & 34 emas remains constant so we know that this is not the high. At 7:00am PST, we see price continue up to test the pivot, and STILL the distance between the 9 & 34 remains constant. At 7:15 the $DJX spikes briefly leaving a "sellers" tail. At 7:23 on the ES chart, price hits an intraday high of 923.50. Again we see that the $DJX gives a "heads up" that an intraday high is about to take place. At this point notice how price closes inside the space between the 9 & 34 emas. Notice also how the upper ema "rounds over" indicating that the up trend is about to collapse.
From 7:30 to 7:45 price consolidates at the pivot At 7:46 price closes below the 34ema for the first time, signaling the possible end of that consolidation. Professionals sometimes call this first move out of a consolidation a "peekaboo"...as it offers us a look at where stops might be positioned. At 7:50 price retests the pivot AND the 34ema. This confluence provides and the subsequent failure move are the entry signal we would take at this point. Take a long look and memorize the conditions. They will appear over & over.