Apple Options volatility around IPAD3 news release

Discussion in 'Options' started by tmf, Feb 23, 2012.

  1. tmf

    tmf

    It is now said on March 7th Apple is releasing news on IPAD3.... will this affect volatility of the options? Right now say 600's sit around 33.... (example) will it go up and if yes, what # can be expected?

    Thanks!
     
  2. Looks like news on the IPAD3 will not increase the volatility of the March options. Otherwise the 600 March calls would have gone up today instead of dropping 45% while AAPL had a small gain of 0.65%.
     
  3. tmf

    tmf

    Does the IV not increase closer to events and not this far out..... if a company is going to release earnings 2 weeks in advance it could be 30, then 50 a week ahead and 130 the day of.....

    So why would by 600's move this early?

    Just trying to get my head around all this.

    Thanks!
     
  4. Because the 600's are 20% out of the money. The market doesn't think the stock will move 20% over the next month. However, I think that the atm vol is pricing in some ipad3 volatility. The term structure is too flat.
     
  5. tmf

    tmf

    Hmmm....

    would be nice to find a similar situation and see how it played out, like when they release IPHONE 4S what happened? We all know what happens on earnings.... where can you find hostorical data online?
     
  6. bc1

    bc1

    It still makes for a good play with bull put credit spreads on apple.
     
  7. tmf

    tmf

    Whats a good example of this?
     
  8. It's everywhere. Yahoo finance or even Google. You can download it straight to excel too.

    Or if you have some programming skills you can do it within seconds because the link to the data always has some sort of regular format.

    Google " excel macro yahoo finance"
     
  9. tmf

    tmf

    I can find stock prices....

    I can't find a database of option prices and thier IV per day, historically :)
     
  10. This might be a good time to "Buy the Rumor Sell the News". AAPL is due for a correction and after the news on the iPad3 could be a good time to buy Puts on AAPL or the QQQ.


    Watch these QQQ Mar 2012 63.00 puts @ $1.00. Enter sometime before March 7 and hold on till expiry at the end of March. My QQQ price target end of March, 2012 is $58.00, 5x gain on the options.


    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=QQQ120330P00063000

    :)
     
    #10     Feb 23, 2012