I wouldn't kick yourself too hard. I've been avoiding the iPhone Kool-Aid for a while now and the best bit of anecdotal evidence I can provide is this. Do you know any 14-year old kids? I know a bunch of them and guess what? They all switched to a Blackberry. These are mostly kids who could have any phone they wanted. That says a hell of a lot to me. They say they switch in part because of BBM. A big question going forward is how will AAPL and other content providers handle streaming. I'm not a programmer but I know that some of them hate flash and others say it will be years before HTML5 is able to handle everything it needs to handle. AAPL isn't going to cave in to Adobe, because they're all about control. Don't get me wrong, I have said clearly that anyone who shorts AAPL deserves what they get (a thrashing). retailstopfailure said that AAPL was 'finished' because Jobs was sick. AAPL was at $195 at the time. I love calls like that, it's how we all make money. I'm just not sure about the idea that the iPhone is going to replace the Blackberry for business. All my clients have one and I couldn't work without one for that reason. Having said that, why the hell can't RIMM just buy a company that can provide them with a decent browser?
You just listed all of the reasons why RIMM will eventually fail: Everyone has a Blackberry and so the market is saturated with them. Just like with the VCR cassette or cassette tape, eventually the crowd will switch to something new and different. The Blackberry is associated with work, but not fun and social situations. In fact, it does seem very rude if you are sitting there clicking on your Blackberry handling a work matter in front of your buddies. However, it is more fashionable to be answering a text from your friends on the Iphone. Does everyone have a Blackberry? Yes Does everyone have an Iphone? No Working on a Blackberry during a time you should be spending with friends and family? Uncool... I have the graph of RIMM in front of me set for 1 year and guess where the RIMM common stock has gone in 12 months? Sideways to down...Guess where the Apple stock has gone? More then doubled.
AAPL is a diversified company that's beat earnings estimates every single quarter for the past 4 years (that's as far back as my info screen goes) sitting on oodles of cash with a rabid following that breezed through the second worst economic crisis in our recent history as if it never happened. Sometimes the market is actually rational.
That is not the truth. The truth is that Apple went from the 200s to the 80s. So it went down more then 2/3rds during the financial crisis. That is not what I call "breezing through". If you mean that breezing through is the fact that it did not go out of business and is now more then 10% above where it was in 2007/2008 then yeah...I guess thats breezing through. I am shorting APPLE right now BTW. I call "breezing through" a CREE which is considerably higher (2X) then it was in 2008 and got cut down no more then half during the financial crisis.
Its aliases like the S2007 which make me want to short AAPL. If AAPL moves up, no problem...then I get stopped out for a few points of loss. However, I dont believe its got much left. The aliases like S2007 usually operate on margin with tight stops which is a formula for disaster. As price kicks back, their stops will get hit as these guys tend not to like to be wrong and so they can say to their buddies in the locker room "oh I got stopped out". As price continues to recede, they stand back and watch marveling that they got out early. Older traders know that when things look too heated then its time to take profits. These are the same "old guys" that were building up positions when AAPL was below 200 and the S2007s of the world were pounding the desks to short AAPL. Now these ole guys are handing out the shares to S2007 who is buying it on margin. Could it go up from here? I think the long term direction of Apple is up, but as long as we got guys like S2007 and the "old guys" then we have a recipe for price fluctuation. I would not be a buyer of Apple here and in fact have shorted a bit yesterday. Did I mention "The Pad"? Women are oftentimes easily insulted and jaded by how something sounds. Will a woman really want to buy "The Pad"? Also, will a man want to buy "The Pad"? As a trader, you do have to take such things into consideration. "The Pad" is a great device, poorly named, and so it will be a disaster...
you just said you are "shorting aapl right now"...... but i want to know how did your short at 210 go? http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=186448 you called me names if i remember correctly, saying i had no idea what i was doing. i've been long with a cost basis of 102. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2558434&highlight=goog#post2558434 i had a trade in RIMM where i posted that i got stopped out......RTD, do you ever lose money or are one those traders that, "never loses"?
Very good questions. First off, let me clearly state that I am a trader with short-time frames unlike yourself who lurks on the wrong message board. I think you should probably be on one of those IBD boards instead of a "trader" forum. It seems as if you think in time frames of months or years. Sometimes my time frame is just the day, several days or even weeks. I cant remember when the last time I held anything for a few months. To answer your question, I covered my short position in early February when I saw a double bottom. That link you posted up was several weeks old BTW. Your frustration originates from yourself. You purposely hang out on a trader's forum where people are making short term calls while you gloat about some odd position you took way back when in your Fidelity account. If I may make a suggestion which may make your life a whole lot easier, why not go to a board like Morningstar? If you see people trading the ES or some other highly volatile stock, why do you think and believe this board is then for you when you talk about an investment in Apple. I never invest, I trade and use these stocks as trading shells. I really dont care about "The Pad" or any of the nonsense you spew about unemployment or any of that. I am just interested in taking something from point a to point b in a short time frame and then dumping it down... The point of when you entered Apple is moot. The fact is that you are trying to talk about running marathons when we are talking about running the 100 meter dash. They are similar in ways, but entirely different topics. This is a board where we discuss short term high risk trades not longer term investing strategies such as the ones you profess.