Apple Earnings play

48.40 mid on the Jan 60 straddle.

 

Jan's straddle: not bad. May's IV dropped much more though.

 

Well yeah, we all assumed that. Certainly not a win on Jan at 50.00 last.

 

No, the Jan short straddle does not look like it was a good risk/reward trade after all at all. A small gain when we have best case scenario.

 

Actually best case scenario would produce a really nice gain. What we have is a bad case scenerio where the stock goes nowehere and vols barely drop in the back months.

 

The Jan should touch 48.00 fairval by today's close. I plan on holding on a touch of 45.00 or through the Monday following May expiration. I'll pull the position on a touch of $144 or $178; ~symmetrical to the implied forward on Jan spot. AAPL vols rise with spot within a sigma, so I's like to see lower spot.

 

OC, I meant best case scenario in terms of price.

 

ok my bad.... the good news is that it made a little bit of money at least so not a total wash.

 

Anyone doing it again on BIDU tonight? IV much higher.