Apple earnings on Tuesday Apr 20th

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by dmt_2, Apr 17, 2010.

  1. dmt_2


    Consensus EPS is 2.43. Whisper is 2.75

    Revenue average estimate is 12.03 B

    Are you buying/shorting/holding into earnings and why?

    I'm currently long as I still think it's cheap despite the nice run. I also think the whisper number will easily be beaten, as iPhone/ipod and Mac sales are ahead of estimates, change in revenue recognition effective Q1 (or FYQ2) 2010, strong ipad sales (although not sure if they recorded any last quarter). Also think consensus numbers will need to be revised upwards if iphone sales are contributing more to total revenue, as margins on these are closer to 60% as opposed to 30% for macs. Hopefully we'll also get more info on the new iphone 4g out in the summer.

    Let's hope that external things won't spook the markets like the goldman SEC case yesterday, nor signal the beginning of a correction. But i doubt it. We'll see.

    Any thoughts?
  2. muller


    Let me figure out the headline:
    "Stock drops despite strong earnings."
  3. After Goldman crash yesterday, many traders will attempt to sell short this stock. Apple can go to $300 this year purely on momentum, short covering, and selling different variations of the jesus phone, first in the US, then international, then--intergalactic... At some point the technology will be old like Palm and Steve Jobs will sell his holdings and retire and later the market will price this co. in the $20-30B cap.
  4. dmt_2


    I couldn't have said it better myself, yes you do need to figure out the headline. But let me help you.

    - with their good run last quarter and expectation that the economy is improving, stocks need strong reports. They need to be beat both the whisper eps and top line solidly, with year on year revenue growth, and good guidance. There are exceptions. This is not rocket science to understand.

    - those that have done this have jumped up eg intel, intuitive surgical, yum brands, jpm.

    - those that did not have fallen despite "strong earnings" eg alcoa, google, AMD and BAC, although the latter's serious sell off started with the GS news.

    - I believe apple will exceed these standards. So does the market it seems. Despite the big friday sell off and major tech stocks all falling between 2.5% and 7.6%, apple was down 0.6%, was positive for some parts of the day and actually saw call option premiums increase despite the stock being in the red. We'll see.

    - And finally, I'm long apple simply coz i think it's cheap relative to fundamentals, despite the recent run, plus has momentum, not necessarily for the earnings play.
  5. muller


  6. dmt_2


    See (muller). Outstanding report and evidently the stock goes not only up but has created the clearest platform for it to pass 300.
  7. muller


    I see, I do see, and I don't have a problem with that at all... :D
    ... since I'm playing the participation-game, not the anticipation-game. :)
  8. $299.50... Maybe tomorrow it hits 300 :)

  9. 300+ premarket
    #10     Oct 13, 2010