Yeah, you're right. If people can't afford to buy Apple products at the torrent pace of a year ago, Apple will either lower the price or give away free product. Nordstrom's, Sotheby's, Tiffany and Apple are immune. So is Apple. 'Cause it's so cool... And it's already fallen so much, it can't fall further. LEH, BSC, AIG, POT, etc., etc. proved that.
Listen, ByLo... You can rationalize this all you want. But what is happening in this contracting economy (think Christmas gifts) is that people are buying FEWER items so that the FEW items they do have/give are what they REALLY enjoy. AAPL makes a product that kids freaking love. Teenagers like my 14-yr-old nephew who come from average families WILL get there hands on iPods and iPhones no matter what. It may come at the expense of some Macy's clothes, but this is the decison kids (& adults) are making. If you have ever taken microeconomics think indifference curves. The point is sliding towards the AAPL axis and away from everything else.
RIMM has gotten destroyed and will head lower, too, IMO, and it is a great company and former high flyer. It's not Apple specific; my point is that Apple is no longer immune. There's too much capacity, the economy if fundamentally terrible, and Apple's 'space' really has gotten much more crowded in the last year. The iPhone is not going to generate hegemony for Apple the way the the iPod did - there's way too much competition. But I digress.
That's a ridiculous "point" to make for a stock that has been sinking for nearly a year and is already 60% off its peak. Johnny. Come. Lately. Cheers, mate.
I dont care if its an ipod or coach bag no company will be immune to this deep recession. AAPL will NOT weather this storm.....
Since 2004, December iPod sales have been steadily dropping like a stone. Why is this? Because sales have already peaked. One reason is that the iPod is becoming less a device and more a software application on another device. Every time I travel, I'm amazed at how few iPods I see, and how many people I see listening to music or watching video on Sony Ericsson and Nokia phones. That's happening here with the iPhone -- iPod is merely an app on the phone, and not a dedicated device. (Same thing is happening to GPS gadgets, PDAs, etc.) As for the iPhone, the latest offerings from Nokia blow it away. Personally, I can't stand the tap and pray, no-video iPhone. It's a piece of crap. A lot of the growth in the MP3 player market also seems to be in Asia, where cheap and brand X mostly beats expensive and Apple. Better cellphones are going to continue to hurt iPod sales. The proof is in the pudding. And yes I am short 4000 shares of AAPL so that allows me to comment on the stock (according to BullAlert).
A stock doesn't know what price it has already come from. This is a bias imposed by humans with memories. Fundamentally and technically, the stock is a short and has a long way to go. Don't let the sell side analyst at Piper Jaffray fool you who has a target estimate of $235 for AAPL for 2009. What a goddamn idiot.