Mark Douglas' "Trading In The Zone" Page 88: "The best traders have evolved to the point where they believe without a shred of doubt or internal conflict, that "anything can happen." They don't just suspect that anything can happen or give lip service to the idea. Their belief in uncertainty is so powerful that it actually prevents their minds from associating the "now moment" situation and circumstance with the outcomes of their most recent trades." Just wanted to post this as a reminder to me the next time I am certain the market can't do this or that.
yes that was a good one for your book --- to expect almost anything and to never be surprised is definitely a must in trading. i think that is one of the reasons this is such a great profession as we always get some action --- when things seem flat or predictable it is just a matter of time before something interesting hits.
Please clarify your your point if you can. I will explain what I saw. The chart you posted shows an extended pullback from the 1214.50 top. Depending on your ability to read price, one should have been prepared for the creation of a top at "some" point above 1211.75 with weakness. That weakness began its creation at the 1206.50 bottom and verified its upswing at the 1207.00 oscillation bottom to confirm that weakness. The expectation at that point turned to watch resistance for further weakness. That further weakness appeared at the 1212.75 oscillation top at about 9 minutes till 4 pm EST. That was your short trigger to break through 1207.00 & 1206.50 targets. The inverse of this movement is what is currently playing out which is price moving back up to try to break through 1214.50. The expectation is that price will not break through (now) and ultimately oscillate back down to test 1179.50 before attacking 1214.50 again. Price is not predictable but it is readable and the key to reading it is putting the foundation of your trading on a singular focus. You can do this by setting strict parameters by which YOU determine trend with fixed rules. Once that is completed, price oscillations inside YOUR trend then become simply reasons for trade executions or exits. I see part of the confusion in the chart you posted, at least for me, is the timeframe, first and foremost and second nothing to determine strength other than the candlesticks, which are inconsistent when applied to minute charts. The pullback on your chart seems to come out of left field but it is just a matter of perception. What seems to come out of no where to you is readable to me. I know you won't understand my chart like I don't understand yours but I hope my notes will clarify things.
Yes Charlie, a chart is always readable at the end of the day. I just love those charts people like you post on ET with the perfect trendlines drawn, and the spot on commentary notated at just the right moment in time. Now, if you could only do it in real time it might mean something. P.S. I went short at 1107.75 on a bounce up off of 1106.25. However, one of my mainstay indicators on my 10 min. chart flashed a short signal earlier at 1108.75, but I ignored it, hence the purpose of posting the chart and creation of this thread.
The purpose of posting the chart was for you to see the differences in our perspectives but you have to look. Our charts are of the same Market during the same basic time period but look completely different. That difference is the reason I see what I do and you see what you do. The simplicity of that irrates your senses for some reason. We do and see things differently . . . big deal. My point is we saw the same thing just at different times. One can only trade in real-time, so one must see trade triggers and targets in real-time. My point is that traders see things differently because of the environment (chart increments) we create to trade in. There are no trendlines on the chart I posted. Where did that come from? I think you mean 1207.75, 1206.25 & 1208.75, respectively on the prices you posted. If you were trading around 1100, we are talking about different Markets. If I interpret your "P.S." paragraph correctly, you watch multiple times frames to get your trade signals. Each of us got in on that short but at different levels. We each saw the reason to go short at different times. I got short @ 1211.50 and rode it till close but we both were short. I know you won't take suggestions but I will offer a few anyway. Lose the minute charts and move to tick or volume charts exclusively. Second, pick a chart and trade it. Lose watching multiple time frames, they conflict too much. Third, use all the Market data. Don't omit the overnight data because sometimes the Market will create new tops or bottoms overnight and you will miss them. Lastly, loosen up and open your mind to new possibilities.
The wisdom in this thread is that even with the most optimal time frame/s and best TA, 'anything can happen'. All the charting in the world simply cannot account for it. Be prepared for that.
That's your opinion, which you have a right to but whether there is wisdom to that statement is a matter of perception to the environment you trade in. You do not trade watching the Market from my perspective (chart increment), do not understand how I read price and do not understand how "I" technically analyze price so blindly dismissing what I do as "All the charting in the world", optimal timeframe & best TA shows no wisdom at all. You could be the master of your environment for all I know but all I care about is that I am the master of mine. I would most likely fail trading in your environment but I always profit in mine and at the end of the day my environment is what ultimately counts . . . to me.