It is Friday and weekly opex, and rumor has it Captain Sully Sullenberger has been hired to bring $SPY down on runway $380 or as close as only he can pilot her to the mark. Godspeed, Captain.
I'm going to be doing quite a bit of travelling the next seven weeks or so, enjoying the company of actual human beings. So the updates and ideas will slow down a bit. But the best financial publication on the world wide interwebs will return with more money-making ideas soon enough. In the meantime, I leave you wit this ...
$63B of net new Treasury C-A-S-H settles Friday, so keep an eye on your Fed POMO schedule release for next week on Friday. That money could go to the American people to help those who need it to buy rice and beans and pay the rent, but my money, sadly, says Powell & Co will instead use it to help Bezos, Musk & Co avoid the shame of finishing 2021 with a net worth of less than $1 Trillion each. In other news, the SPX was at $3600 just about three weeks ago. If we get a retrace to there, watch CNBC roll out the "Markets in Turmoil" chyron. Why is the market in such a holding pattern here? In my opinion, two reason: 1) Uncertainty of whether the Big Orange Turd does something as reckless as the stunt he pulled on 1/6/2021 and 2) the promise made by Biden of $2K stimulus, which was put in doubt by West Virginia's other Republican Senator, Democrat Joe Manchin. This market will fly the second Trump is no longer in power (if Pence had moved against him to remove him this week we'd be up 150 handles). But that will merely be a relief rally (sorry GOP'ers, Trump is not good for the stock market, or anything, any longer). The market wants the American people to ge that stimmy.
Read your journal, fun reading. I would guess that your maths employs Fib extensions and retracements based on the levels I saw.
GC will be away for a bit working on a project but as someone who trades with him I can answer your question. With respect to retracements, it's more general zones rather than actual Fib numbers eg., 1/3-2/3 with 50% while not a Fib number is a sweet spot. Retracements are of course viewed within the context of price structure. Fib extension targets are relevant as the institutional algo's like to target them.
I had Apple down at $180 but that was an EOY target. My other price targets: Amazon 4100 FB 330 TSLA 1400 Google 2140 MSFT 270 Nvidia 680 Waiting for fear to kick in then I will put some size into options with these in mind. Putting this here solely to check back at the end of 2021 and see how retarded I am.