Anyone who is upset with this market is either fighting the trend, or is too afraid to buy, and sits in anguish as the market keeps climbing without them. How do I know, because that use to be me.
Fattburger you are correct, but I will ask you how you fared as a trader in 2000/2001. The same angst that kept me sidelined for some of the runup back then is the same angst I'm feeling now. The only difference is back then there was cheap REITS and cheap CEFs which were yielding double digits and a good place to hide... there is nowhere to hide now IMO.
I was just starting out back then, doing chart research in my kitchen. With the dems in complete control, I don't see anything that can pull the market down very far, as we near the mid term elections. Look back to 2006 as a guideline remember the Republicans had complete control then, and wanted to keep it. This market is rigged to the upside, make no mistake.
Here is a daily of the Dow and the back half of 2006. Note were we are right now, 10965. Same spot as July 2006. Also we have the same fiscal flunkies running the nations finance, just makes my case stronger. They will play from the same play book.
Sorry thats a weekly chart, but you get the picture. Sure we may give back some in May but don't expect a new downtrend.
This "rigged" stuff is just laughable. Look at any chart, from any market, on any exchange, from anywhere on the planet, from any time period. Guess what: they all do the same thing. Prices rotate from supply imbalances to demand imbalances and back. This is done in a fractal manner. Over a year ago, when the ES was in the mid 600's and bounced, the weekly/monthly chart showed clearly that the next major rotation up would be to around 1300 level, the next MAJOR supply imbalance above where price was AT THAT TIME. Really, a kindergärtner could do this. It's us adults, with all kinds of beliefs and perceptual filters that can't see how simple auction markets function. For those of you short to intermediate term traders, you can't forget to study the longest term charts. It's all one big set of buyers and sellers, you can't divide things up into arbitrary time frames. One man's overbought is another's oversold. Thus, the whole idea of over-anything is just rubbish.
@Fatt fair points The one thing I'd say is that the Dems can't control foreign debt markets from cracking and there are a whole host of current problems that are ahead of us unlike in 2006 when the ship was full steam ahead. Also don't underestimate the Fed's $1.25 trillion program which was buying up all the mortgage-backed securities issued by FRE and FNM which just ended and was keeping rates artificially low. Some corporate debt has lower yield then govt debt now ... that can't be a sign that all is well IMO.
Are you saying the election cycle is irrelevant to the markets, now that is laughable. Time for you to get back to the class lecture, I think I hear your students calling for you professor. Leave the trading to those who can.