i am as bearish as anyone but the prices are crazy. you can get credited almost 20 cents to do a 1:2 put ratio at the 40 and 45 strikes. what am i missing? this trade seems too good to be true.
Options require more than a strike price for identification. The month also counts. It's a very likely winner - but you must consider the risk before making the trade. Does the small reward justify the (tiny) risk? No one can answer that for you, but I don't like the idea. Mark
i included the month in the subject of the thread. sell 2 june 40 puts @ .40 buy 1 june 45 puts @ .60 you make money all the way down to 349.80 on the spy. if the spy is between 350-450 you can make up to 5 dollars more.
Most likely result: + $0.20, less commissions. It that a good goal for you? Obviously, that's a personal choice, but I'd like to make more than $20 per spread over the next four months. Mark
...that is the basic trade... i like making what is almost free money. none of the other major etfs (dia and qqqq) pay a credit to put on a trade with a breakeven that is more than 50% lower in the next 4 months. the size and ratio is to be determined. what i am trying to figure out is whether or not i am missing anything but you don't seem to have any info but thanks anyway.
You're not missing anything. That's the nature of ratio spreads. You have a high probability of keeping the small credit that you receive but you also have the potential for a big loss if the sh*t hits the fan. GOOG offers and even better credit for a 2:1 ratio at half the current price. My take is, you can't earn 20 cts tomorrow or even this week? You need 4 months to do it? The time risk is far too high for such a small reward. But that's just my discomfort zone
yeah i saw goog and i saw aapl too. the gs puts are crazy too. actually, there are a lot of crazy 1:2's out there. i'm also in a call spread for gld but that is more of a bull play than a credit play.
1) ?......you'll have to remain in the trade all the way to expiration in order to make the "tiny" maximum profit. 2) A continued downtrend in the market will explode the premiums, to your detriment, even though you're "far-out-of-the-money"........(the bomb may have exploded "far away" but you'll get hit with radiation). 3) The position will behave as if you are "short" one of the 40-puts.
1) ?......FWIW, I calculated a downside, expiration, break-even point, X, of 34.80. [45-X-0.60+(2)(0.40)+2(X-40)=0].....X=34.80 :eek: 2) Remember, it's an expiration breakeven point. Volatility can "kill" you along the way.