Was funny how everyone thought gold and oil after those few down days thought they were both headed down further, oil now back above 105, gold climbing and the dollar falling again. Same situation as we were in just last week. Right now who knows where oil and gold go, however with a slowing economy why is there any need for commodities to climb higher unless everyone is just hedging against the falling dollar yet again....
The dollar is becoming a leading indicator at these levels. Not long until our 'friend' will start screaming that the upcoming downmove is only a blimp in this bullmarket.
Yeah, that pullback was promising but didn't last long. The USD Index looked like it was going to break 75 and test 80 for a day or so but looks to be headed back towards a re-test 71. We'll see if it can hold or not and we could be seeing the 60's for the first time ever. It could get real ugly from here...
Make no mistake, the Euro will breach the 1.60 mark. It's just a matter of when. Trichet was on today with his "same ol'" commentary about how inflation is here and how they need to pay attention to inflationary pressures. Nevermind that he's not smart enough to realize that whenever he drives the Euro up and dollar down, oil and commodities follow with it, thereby creating the very inflation he's worried about. Spain is about to crack. Italy is in a recession already. Ireland's housing market is under extreme stress and not a day goes by that France doesn't downgrade some economic indicator. Today it was GDP to 1.6. But Germany is doing fine! That's all that matters to the ECB
Unlike the Fed the ECB operates under a defined mandate vis a vis' inflation and under no mandate to facilitate economic or employment growth. For once Europe truly has their act together. We're Argentina. Trichet is an adult. Australia is also hiking. We're run by a bunch of treasonous assholes who should be impeached. Bernanke and Paulson should be roasting on a spit in Ron Paul's backyard........
I think one needs to be very careful. What if the move up in eur/usd of today is the right side corner of a captial M, indicating the top? I am seriously looking at it. If it fails to break out, watch out for a dump of the EUR against the dollar and may be everything else.
forget that nonsense. youre thinking about a quick little scalp. the dollar has been dropping for 20 YEARS! it will not get better now that were in a horrible recession and have some of the lowest rates of major economies in the world. its also clear its not on bennys agenda to have a strong dollar - far from it. the dollars going to hell, its been the easiest trade for a long time. speed is gonna pick up now...