Anyone trading with a profit objective of $100 A WEEK?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by taojaxx, Mar 20, 2011.

  1. taojaxx

    taojaxx

    Thank you all for all this. Advice galore really!
    First of all I need to dispel a wrong impression: I do not start trading from scratch, like it would be an off the wall idea.
    I was a FX trader from 1980 to 2002, so 22 years in a pretty wild market. I thereafter switched to consulting (until my retirement last month) as the FX market had changed and there was more money for me in the consulting business. During the last 10 years or so, I was too busy to do much trading and had lost any incentive to do so anyway.
    I am getting back in it as it is something I have done in the past and I need basic information from those of you who know the markets I mentioned.
    What I don’t need (no disrespect here, just a fact) is mentoring offers or patronizing advice.
    That being said, thanks again for the pearls of advice I found interspersed in quite a bit of BS. I can’t name all those who came up with valuable remarks. I trust the others will easily recognize themselves, as they probably know deep inside that they‘re clueless on the topic and try to compensate by pompous pronouncements.

    The one I must thank is NoDoji, who really sent very valuable advice, through PM.

    As to the “edge” that a few seem to think they have, I wonder what it is really. My 22 years of experience on FX have taught me that (I’m trying not to sound pompous here…) on a commoditized market such as FX (and I think it applies to ES, CL, GC etc…), the only “edge” you can have is either market power-you’re big enough to move he market, be it for a few moments only- or order flow, you’re big enough to have customer orders that can move the market, be it for a few moments (and you're happy front running them).
    Quite frankly, and with all due respect, I don’t think the players who have this kind of edge post on ET.
    Apologies for not being what I appeared to be, but I am sure as traders you all know that in markets, what you see is not always what you get.

    Again, GLTA!

    TJ
    :D
     
    #31     Mar 20, 2011
  2. risky63

    risky63

    was that marchand sage?
     
    #32     Mar 20, 2011
  3. Idk which remarks you're referring to, but you should've expected replies such as my own when your first post read like it did. I don't trade futures or forex, only equities, but I do know that in my nearing 5 years of full-time experience as a trader that being willing to lose money is not an edge.

    With 22 years of trading experience, one would expect that you would have a better sense of how to build a trading plan.

    Anyway, good luck with the Franklin-a-week thing.
     
    #33     Mar 20, 2011
  4. nLepwa

    nLepwa

    Well if you're going to bet on auto-correlation you have better ways of capturing the bias. Look at trailing stops for example.

    I can already tell you that the auto-correlation isn't strong enough on fast timeframes to offset the trading costs. It can work on longer timeframes though, especially if you're long only.

    Good luck,

    Ninna
     
    #34     Mar 20, 2011
  5. taojaxx

    taojaxx

    Ninna,

    Agree on trailing stops. My only problem with those is getting whipsawed on upward (or downward) spikes that move your trailer too close to market and then you get stopped out prematurely.
    One question: what do you consider fast moving and hence what is longer time frame in your experience on ES, CL, GC kind of markets?

    TIA

    ElecEquity,

    Didn't mean to upset you. Wasn't looking for a "trading plan" (Wouldn't look for it on the web anyway), just direct experience in the markets I am focusing on (see above).
    I never had a "trading plan" other than adjusting to Mr.Market, as he is different everyday.
    One of my favorite quotations is from the great American philosopher, Mike Tyson (yes, THAT Mike Tyson). He used to say "Everybody has a plan, until they get hit". I look at Mr.Market as at Mike Tyson. When I switch on my trade station, I know I can get hit by Mr.Market as powerfully as by Mike Tyson, if I stick to some preconceived plan.
    Good luck with the edge thingy,
    "Franklin-a-week" TJ
     
    #35     Mar 20, 2011
  6. I wasn't upset. Still not. But this phenomena guy here kind of ticked me off in another thread. But you? No. Btw, you can check out how that edge thingy is working by reading my Journal http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=214131. Seems to be working okay I think. I have no major complaints that many people would listen to. I've posted real blotters as well but stopped when posting in the P/L thread never seemed to gain momentum. It looks like its returning, so maybe I'll start again.

    Can't say that I understand how sticking to a plan will get you hit by "Mr. Market" as powerfully as by Mike Tyson....but okay. Good luck trading on the fly with no plan...and just in case we're losing ourselves in semantics -- by plan, I mean strategy. Cheers.
     
    #36     Mar 20, 2011
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    #37     Mar 20, 2011
  8. taojaxx

    taojaxx

    As I said in previous posts, I have been a new trader since September 1980, except from October 2002 until last month, where I wasn't a trader at all.
    Thanks for the tip anyway, I may one day quit drinking.:)

    TJ
     
    #38     Mar 20, 2011
  9. I'm not going to bother reading the rest of the responses, but to OP:

    Just based on what you're saying, you don't have the skills to win. That's not meant to be offensive - you're just a newbie. Not necessarily to the markets, but to the technology you would need to consistently beat them. Trade the demo account for the next year and save your 40K for when you can do something intelligent with it. Keep your powder dry.

    Then, stay away from big tough markets like ES. Go after stuff so goddamn boring that no one but a retired guy would bother with it. Something like beta-neutral spreads between utility stocks on weekly bars. If you don't know what I mean by that, learn.

    And if you won't take any of my other advice and just HAVE to trade the indexes, try this: buy your account value in SPY when it closes above the 50 week moving average for 3-5 weeks. Reverse the position (ie. short an account worth of SPY) when it closes below for 3-5 weeks. This has returned about 10% per year on average for a long time, which should be close to your profit target.
     
    #39     Mar 20, 2011
  10. taojaxx

    taojaxx

    Big D,

    Thanks, sounds like good advice (except, that is, for the period May to September last year, where whoever would do that would have paid through the nose, but I'd be suspicious of something working ALWAYS).

    One question though: Why would I bother with SPY with higher commish and margin when I can do the exact same thing cheaper with ES?
    -$2 commish (courtesy IB)
    -low margin (courtesy IB)
    -and, icing on the cake, lower taxes... (courtesy IRS)

    Cheers,

    TJ
     
    #40     Mar 20, 2011