Thanks much NoD, I PM replied. Looks great, really! Ninna, I take your point that skewing PT/SL skews the occurrences as well. But doesn't that apply only if market moves are perfectly random, which is a pretty restrictive assumption? (unless, that is, you still believe in Efficient Market Theory) Meaning if the trend does not revert by more that your SL, then PT/SL should skew the outcome as well? Just asking. Obviously, I'm not sure...
I have a note from somebody bruno? Look at weekly trend, calculate 50% weekly range, if trend long, long above 50% level stop is the prior 50% level, same for short.
If you are going to guess which direction the market is going... Set your stops at 4 point loss, limit at 8 point gain... Then i guess just flop around and try and guess 50/50....
Go for it, TJ. But I would recommend putting no more than the minimum or 5k in a futures account it's all you need.
Nkhoi, Clearer with the chart. Jackie, I'm thinking If you guess 50/50 and have 8 point TP and 4 point SL, then Ninna has a point: you get stopped out twice as frequently as you hit your TP and you're down the commish.
I don't have any note on how he decides weekly trend my wild guess is you just watch 50% numbers continue to go up or down.
Wait till the market is in at an inflection point, 4 or 5 point move is not the bots just jerking the market around, if it moves 5 points from a level, it means its probably going to move around 8-10 points in the same direction... Then you can be wrong around twice as many times as you are right and still break even... 1 futures contract is 2.00 commission, thats 4.00 round trip. If you are right 50 percent of the time then you will be making money.. If you have no edge, whats else can you expect..