You could be right or wrong, it matters not, because you are making the all too common mistake of assuming that the day to day movement of markets reflects economic reality, or that there is some deeper reason underlying market movement.. Nothing could be further from the truth. Only when averaged over a very long time is the market liable to reflect the broader economy. Day to day movement is determined by the psychological mindset of participants in response to their own recent successes or failures, various true and untrue, short-lived news events and economic reports, all of which are instantaneously reflected in market price according to the efficient markets hypothesis that, fortunately, real markets don't obey, and in reaction to moves by major market participants who may have a stake in futures being pumped up overnight when it is relatively easy to do it, or in pushing prices up or down at times of low volume, when again it is relatively easy, and ultimately in response to liquidity demands of the moment. In other words, in general, markets go up because they are going up, and down because they are going down. Short term market action has nothing to do with whether Bernanke and the Fed Board of Governors have it right or not.
You must be stoned to listen to these people on bubblevision. They are better suited to be comedians. I remember in 2000 Abbey Joseph saying Naz 6000. I think she is the worst predictor on TV. Out of the thousands on TV, I have only come across 2 people that had a clue, Jonathan Hoenig and Gary Kaultbaum, who don't appear enough on Fox business.
TravelTrader- " I have only come across 2 people that had a clue, Jonathan Hoenig and Gary Kaultbaum, who don't appear enough on Fox business." >> You are the one who watches Fox business!!!! Hurray contact them quick they are looking for all three of their viewers- you might win something. Geez. ~ stoney
Actually have never seen the fox business network once. Unfortunately they don't have it where I am so I don't know if it is good or bad. I used to see the Sat. business block on regular fox news once in a while. Keep watching bubblevision. If you don't see how wacked their programming is, good luck, you're gonna need it.
TravelTrader we always welcome the new folks to our community... but before you suggest someone needs luck, maybe you ought to read his 1000 plus good ideas & posts and realize you have fallen into something very special at ET. Probably the only place in the world for free where you can find really good ideas and not be barraged with commercials. In order to call exactly to the day both the correction and the turn takes a constant monitoring of all sources... The floor, the hedge funds, the brokers and the TV. The TV Adds a sentiment angle that is very useful for trend direction. When you put away glossy one term covers everything comments- like bubbleVision you will realize that if you know what to look for it all can be very useful. It can also make you crazy but that's another story... The mind is a computer too TT and you must leave all inputs on and count on your experience if you have it to filter out the crap from the caveats.... Once again welcome. ~ stoney
Stoney, I would never have the time to go read your posts, sorry, so I don't know much about you. I was simply commenting on your post about these commentators on TV and I am saying that almost all of them don't have a clue about markets or have a conflict of interest. What specifically got me was " I found it surprising Abby Joseph and others stood by their 10% gain in December comments ". This should not surprise anyone who knows Abby Joseph. I don't think she has ever made a bearish stance or comment. This is her job, to be bullish and tell people to buy, all the time. She is pure comedy for me. Usually I can't stand those catchy phrases that are always thrown around without much thought like 'WMDs', 'axis of evil', and now the new 'subprime' we hear so much. But 'bubblevision' and 'talking heads' just fit so well I just have to use them. Thanks for the welcome, I wish you the best.
...Travel what I was intrigued with was not only Abbey but Richard ? I forget his last name and one other guy ALL insisted on this 10% move in December... and I found this interesting not because of their prognostic abilities but because to say this while we were losing that 10%-they seemed to know something. And since they have a foot in the brokerage trading account world and the hedge fund world and since I tend to lean towards the paranoid UFO side of things, and since I have been hearing similar stuff from some hedgies traders... I wonder if the end of year fix is in... Numbers have to come up to keep folks in the game... As to the art of Abbey Joe yes she has been very bad and Peter Martin has been shown the door at Wackyovia and My guy at Smith Barney has his whole office removed from the building and the king WRONG WAY Ralph Accompoora he's retired and Phil Roth is still around Miller Tabak I believe good man. Good chartist The relatively young guy who comes on to Smart Money, Carter Worth he looks like an up and comer and then there's me. That's about all that's left. A fading art- everyone likes a quant computer program now... ~ stoney