Doesnt it feel like the market and the investors feeding into the rate cut are like little kids asking for ice cream or cookies before dinner. I mean I find it pathetic that this rally is on hopes of a rate cut and nothing more. The problems still exist and wont be gone anytime soon. Reducing the rates is going to hurt this economy in the long run, they want to give wallstreet one big celebration into the end of 2007 and they might with a 50 BP cut. Remember consequences will be met with these rate cuts. Cutting the rates will only increase bubbles in other asset classes. They think this is the smart thing to do, well its what wallstreet wants so I guess they will get it.
Another monday morning quarterback. BTW-- I remember one "highly accomplished economist" telling everyone to take out Adjustable Rate Mortgages when rates were at historic lows, and just months before 16 consecutive rate hikes.
Yes we can see how they create a crisis after crisis to be sure - those accomplished economists are not correct
Don't buy the BS on bubble vision. This rally (1 day) does merely constitute a technical counter reaction. This has nothing to do with rate cut hopes or oil being down. These explanations are just added in hindsight by journalists and TV clowns that never ever traded in their life. Why give them any credibility?
You all forget..to build short positions at the institutional level (and retain decent year end bonuses), you must have good buy program initiated rallies to have the ability to sell into strength. These rallies are a gift to get properly positioned for a sell-off in the future as the economy continues to slow down and then contract.
We were very 'oversold'. We were at major support levels. Gloom and doom headlines everywhere. End of quarter/year is almost here. Good chance of more upside here.
Concur. Many speculators do not understand that 1. You do not need to predict. Reacting is fine. You can make decent returns by reacting, so why try to predict? 2. If you try to predict, you will not be able to do it with much consistency. I track the weekly predictions of market monitors on Nightly Business Report (aired every Friday night on PBS). From 8/4/06 to 8/31/07 (53 weeks), they were right 57% of the times. If the best can only do slightly better than 50-50, what are your odds for doing much better than that? And would you go "all in" with 0.57 odds?
To a big extent I agree with this statement but there are greater forces of liquidity at play here on both sides and a greater story as well. I found it surprising Abby Joseph and others stood by their 10% gain in December comments but when you think about it this was supposed to be a 4-6% sell off on declining earnings picture and a slowing economy & we were all prepared for that but it got twisted into a real financial mess... the tightness in the system will likely linger in the corporate world and be felt many ways. I think the talking heads did a good job of trying and explain what was going on. Dick Bovane In particular, he was a frequent guest on CNBC and been a wonderful listen, very informative- and simmerly Bloomberg found this guy who is really really good, Schilling or close to that- yesterday he took apart the fanny may and freddy mac risk and showed how accounting accounted for over $500 mln of the write down. This was good, good journalism. Stocks went up big too I should of listened. Still I know from where you come Makloda The roaming the floor bit will Dillen I try not to listen it's grasping at straws and BS- Bob Passani riles me the most, I was tipped to this fact by a blog but all his stuff is planted by floortraders who then go the other way. And the oil girl with the buck teeth on Blomberg Susie something- my god every time she would say oil is going o hit $100 this week. She was wrong sooner are the words out of her mouth than oil starts diving. Then it's Traders say options could push oil lower... whoops it's back up. These guys are playing her. PS- Old Spec- I track the weekly predictions of market monitors on Nightly Business Report (53 weeks), they were right 57% of the times. If the best can only do slightly better than 50-50... Not sure how scientific your study is but the reason speculators tell you before hand when the stock market is about to turn as stoney has done yet again in his gobble gobble thread-- is for you to be awed pure and simple. If you run a tight ship you can bounce about. When you run 5 accounts and many million it pays very much to be slightly ahead of the heard. ~stoney