Anyone selling this rally

Discussion in 'Trading' started by S2007S, Sep 1, 2006.

  1. S2007S


    This past month was anyone selling into this rally or buying???

    cnbc seems to be hyping the markets up again. I turned bearish towards the end of this month. We may head somewhat higher but I dont see it lasting into the end of 2006. I think the housing market is going to hurt this economy in 2007.
  2. Your assumptions indicate to me like it should be a long term trade. What will you do if the market stayes passive with not much action neither up or down?
  3. Bot 200 Sept 130 SPY puts for 1.05. Lets see if this month lives up to its reputation.
  4. no way we fall much in sept. too many people stacked huge short in sept month. it will be oct or nov as they'll punish the shorts huge. amazing we've wiped out most of may and junes decline just as earnings about to turn down big
  5. Mup


    If your bullish you would like a period of corrective weakness in order to shake out the weak longs, suck in a few shorts to reduce floating supply and allow futher accumulation by the strong holders....To allow futher advances.

    On the other hand were now back at the distribution levels on the SPX before the May/ June mark down commenced which has been providing an opportunity for more favourable priced distribution and removing the excess demand inorder for a sharp mark down to take place.

    So either way a correction has good odds commencing next week, for September to Mid October, inorder to gain more favourable accumulation prices going onwards..

  6. negative.
  7. Mup


    Care to add more krazykarl ??
    rather than just a one word response :confused:

  8. ok - first, you can't say commodities will correct, because all commodities are not the same, so let's break it into two groups:

    energy - Oil is getting to be oversold, though I expect it will be range-bound between 62 and 75 for the next 12 months. If there is any political turmoil, all bets are off and the fear premiums will push the prices out of the range. Demand will not let it break the 62-65 resistence.

    Natural gas is too cheap, bottom line. I am long it and you should be too. WIth winter coming and any allusion to a hurcaine causing double-diget swings in the price of the contract, this one is a no brainer.

    Metals - There is increased demand for industrial metals(copper, nickel, titanium, etc.) coming from emerging markets, the gyrations you see in the markets are new bottoms being established.
    As for gold, my dear, dear friend gold - it is cheap. Gold will not break down - the best shorts can hope for is manipulation by the US Fed, which is causing most of these swings. God help the shorts when China start devaluing the dollar - that event will cause gold to take out 850. The gold market is very small relative to other commodity[energy] markets - if you want to see what fear can really do, watch gold over the next 3 years.....
  9. Mup



    I agree about comd's being a different beast...

    My post was directed to the possable action of the SPX as thats what I interpreted S20075 post was referring to...


  10. my bad - i TOTALLY misread that post. :)

    I think we are range-bound in the spooz for the next 2 months, unless there is political turmoil, which means all bets are off.
    #10     Sep 7, 2006