I'm flat. I got flat the first week in Feb. By some miracle of God I made an infintesmal profit in Jan after being down the whole month. Especially getting off to a disasterous start. I'm almost never flat, I'm in 260 days a year 24/5. But yeah that's the way I see it. Just sit and watch for a while. Couldn't agree more. That money you made is just sitting there. Why lose it just to prove a point? The last thing the redneck said before he died, "Hey yall, watch this!"
don't tell anybody, this is just between me and you, the next big thing could be hamburgers. Americans love them, and everybody wants to be an American.
I don't remember all the details as it was literally more than two decades ago. It was options on CME FX futures and I think they were mostly OTM strikes. And yes I was definitely carrying a position too large for my account.
exactly, I want to find a decent way to take risk sure, but not hae so much leverage that a 10 percent sudden move doesnt allow to keep trading... thnx
If you are good enough at predicting directional moves in stocks to consistently profit from selling premium, then you will be better off trading the underlying. And your trading account will live much longer.
That makes no sense. You seem to be implying that selecting lower strikes than the stock is currently trading at, is more risky. If you are selling otm puts, you don't need to predict directional moves. You only have to predict that the stock will not drop below a certain price.
You're ignoring R/R. lindq is correct re: shorting naked puts, and at least he understands the topic. You sell OTM puts out of some misguided sense of safety and w/o an understanding of the R/R. He's not equivocating. lindq stated that he believes you'll make more (with delta1) if you can predict. You're stating you don't need to (predict). May as well be discussing the weather bc you're 3SD off-base. Stating you don't have to predict direction is foolish as you ignore MTM and risk on the duration of the hold. The fact remains that you're marked each second of every trading day. Vol goes up and you lose on marks... stock goes down.......
Academically-speaking, the question is "do you need to predict the first moment when taking a view of the terminal distribution?". The answer is clearly "yes", as the first moment will be the most important for your returns. However, if you are expressing it via instruments that are leveraged on the second and third moments, you don't have to predict it as well as you would if you just traded delta-one instruments. So I kinda hear what PM wants to say...