Anyone see a Q4 2018 Repeat?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by RGLD, Aug 14, 2019.

  1. RGLD


    It's funny how much short term memory the stock market has. We had one of the sharpest drops last year with no signs of bad economic data and I rarely hear anyone talk about it anymore. It's been a year, is it

    With that being said, volume is up, market is sharply declining and the shape of the drop looks dangerously like Oct 2018. This is classic pump and dump. "They" whoever they are are buying for 6 months based on "good" fundamentals, than they liquidate everything in a few months, than they pump it up again. You can see this on the charts

    Feb 2018, Oct 2018, and now heading into Q4 2019... Somebody wants to shake out every investor before safely staying above 30k on S&P.
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2019
  2. MKTrader


    Nope, this makes a lot more sense than the drop in December. August and September are the only two months with negative returns historically. There's very often a correction (and maybe a few retests) between August and mid-October. I'd love to see the S&P drop another 200 points so we can have a great fall buying opportunity.
  3. tiddlywinks


    FWIW... my analysis on DJIA, the YM contract, has just over 1000 points of what I call big air underneath. IOW... *IF* the slide continues, as of now, It would be no surprise to see YM 24300-500. Preferable with volume in a big swoosh.
  4. Overnight


    Be careful what you wish for.
  5. RGLD


    It started sharply dropping in Oct 2018, if you look at the late Sept, the market was running out of steam - but who remembers these things right?
  6. MKTrader


    That's fine. That's one year. Go back through historical data and you'll see the pattern I mentioned has happened numerous times. It's not a one-off like last year.
  7. MKTrader


    I buy long term, without leverage, so it's fine. I'm not trying to buy things at precise levels like our SA Market Forecaster friend (not working out too well for him).
  8. Overnight


    I do not recall it dropping sharply in Oct last year. I recall it starting as a typical slow burn south. Then it accelerated a bit, and in November we had a "triple dance of consolidation" in the middle of the month. Then came December, and shit hit the fan with all the recession fears and Fed QT.

    Then, while we were all snuggling in our beds, the few days before X-Mas happened, and the markets went VERY sour.

    And on Dec 26th, 2018, everyone woke up remembering their presents and new-found joy of the holiday, and the markets had one of, if not the greatest, single-day point pops in history, on absolutely zero news or data. I do recall a Trump twit around the week before X-mas where he typed, "Now would be a great time to buy stocks."

    I remember these things, albeit some are fuzzy. I remember August 2015, I remember Feb 2018, I remember Oct 2018, I remember Dec 2018-Jan 2019, I remember May 5th 2019, June 1st 2019, and Aug 1st 2019.

    I remember Feb 14th 2019, I remember March 22nd 2019. I also remember all of 2017, when markets made SENSE. Bring back Janet Yellen. She knew how to party by being Mello Yello.
  9. RGLD


    The Dec big drop was due to the final selling, you know how markets are, before a rally it always wants to "set a record" and clean out all the weaklings. Dec 24th was one of the last days before the 1000 point rally and it had enormous volume and no news. No news needed for single day drops in a downtrend. It simply was cleaning the last sellers out.

    Anyone with some common sense would assume "They" whoever that control the markets are playing a pump and dump game and using trump and the fed to hide it. And it makes sense if you think about it that way. All the economic data means NOTHING. When they're ready to unload, nothing will stop them.
    FriskyCat likes this.
  10. Overnight


    So you are using hindsight to curvefit what you have observed to make sense of what occurred.

    Well, here we are again. Where is the market gong from here?

    Sep NQ is at 7296.00. Where will it be in a week?

    Stop with this "pump and dump" thing. Haven't you ever noticed that all equity indices move in tandem, 98% of the time, at exactly the same time during the day? So you are saying that some entity is pumping and dumping stocks in the multiple hundreds of companies that make up these indices? All at the exact same time?

    I don't understand that thinking. I must be missing something here about how indices and the underlying stocks work. I am sorry, I do not have a 4-year college degree, so I know nothing, and understand nothing about anything in the real world, which can be understood only by people with college degrees, where you learn common sense skills, I have heard.
    #10     Aug 14, 2019