it's by Michael T. Klare he's talking War for oil by all the superpowers..... everything he says so far has been happening! The twenty-year oil trend suggests consumption increases and oil production decreases. The answer to the scarcity problem is foreign investment for technology upgrades in the Middle East increasing oil output to meet demand. Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia will need to double output from 22.4 to 45.2 million barrels per day by 2025 to satisfy demand. Between 2000-2020 U.S domestic production will decline by 18 percent, from 8.5 to 7 million barrels per day while imports will increase from 11 to 18.5 million barrels representing a 68% import of oil and consumption will grow by 31% between 2000-2020. Petroleum will continue to play a critical role in the U.S economy. The Nation Energy Policy will not deviate from its dependency on Middle East oil. Diversification will be limited because of political disruption and conflict: Mexico's constitution bans foreign investments in oil, Venezuela president Hugo Chavez opposes deeper American involvement, and Columbia is in a civil war; all and all, limiting oil export capability. President Bush goal has been too promote foreign investment as a core element with engagement with major oil producers. The trend is against oil conservatism and more towards objectives gaining access for more accessible oil reserves. The government will continue to maintain close ties with private oil industry: Chevron and Exxon Mobil. Oil industry lavishly provided contributions to the Republican Party to protect oil interests. The cold war provided opportunity for U.S dominance in the Gulf region. The main objective has been to protect the strait of Horumuz and gain control of Middle East. A long history of U.S military intervention has provided security for Saudi Arabia against its enemies. Currently, Saudi is the most prized jewel of the Middle East and U.S dominance equates superiority through military strength and preserves control of the flow of oil. After 9/11 the Bush administration devised a strategy for dominance in the Persian Gulf. First, military intervention was required by abandoning bases in Saudi and invading Iraq to remove Saadam's regime. Second, opening regimes friendly to foreign investment. And third, increasing government involvement to boost Persian Gulf exports. Wars in Iraq has had the net effect of reducing oil production too 2.5 million barrels per day from a high of 6 million barrels before the war. Iraq's know reserve surpasses 112.5 billion barrels with more potential oil to discoverable; Iran's known reserve totals 89.7 billion barrels; and Saudi's know reserve exceeding 265 billion barrels. Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and United Emirates have 658 billion barrels of know reserve and represent 63% of the known reserve. By 2025, Middle Eastern oil production will reach 47.9 million barrels per day. Dependency on Gulf producers means there will be no end to reliance on Middle Eastern oil. Middle eastern oil will remain central on American foreign policy objectives. There is no guarantee that the Middle East producers will raise output to meet demand. The Persian Gulf producers will spend $525 million on new equipment technology and Saudi will need to double its production by 2020. The only way to production is too allow foreign investment or increase oil production in Iraq. Why is the oil technology slowing down oil production? Sanctions were dropped but bans blocking technology remained in effect. These upgrades were necessary to sustain production levels capable of meeting demand. However, as production slides urgency become more real for new oil extraction technology, in Saudi. Iraq needs $7 billion dollars to boost oil production to 3.5 million barrels per day and $20 billion to hit 5.5 million barrels per day. The need for foreign investment is fungible. There is no proof that increased security has equated too an increase of foreign investment. Foreign policy suggests National Interest is equated to freedom. Security in the Middle East becomes a statement of freedom because it protects National Interest. Military strength protects national interest and thus freedom. The Einsenhower doctrine stated that congress authorized the President combat forces to defend the Middle East; 1957 Saudi received a boost in military assistance for its Army and Air Force plus additional consignments of weapons and strengthening the Saudi Arabian National Guard. In 1972 when Saudi's border was threatened by Yemen civil war, Kennedy sent in troops. The Nixon Doctrine through the 1960s enhanced the strength of Iran and Saudi Arabia providing billions of dollars of advanced weaponry. Iran received 190 F-4s, 80 F-14s, and 460 M-60A1. Saudi received 60 F-15, 200 AH-1S helicopters, and 250 M-60AT tanks. By 1971, 4140 military advisors were sent to Iran and 6250 military advisors sent to Saudi. The Reagan doctrine continued the military build up expending $8.5 billion dollars: 5 AWACS, 7 K-135 Tankers, and 660 Side-Winder missiles. The Middle East Balance of Power was making U.S allies more capable of defending themselves. China also faces the fear of foreign dependency in the Middle East. By 2020, China oil consumption will hit 13 million barrel per day. China's security objects are 1. to develop new field for oil. 2. Establish a significant presence in oil producing regions 3. and diversify import of oil source. China leaders are uncomfortable with the fact U.S is prominent power in the Middle East fearing the U.S may cut off flows of oil to China. China vulnerabilities include lack of Naval capabilities to protect shipments of oil and passages dominated by Navy power. China's crude is expected to rise from 48 percent in 1997 to 81 percent by 2010. China seeks to secure opportunities in: Sudan, Thailand, Venezuela, Yemen, Oman, Peru, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Angola, Burma, Ecuador, Egypt, and Indonesia. China is considered to be an important trading partner and a partner in the fight against terror. There are over 300 million Chinese making over $2,000 and private auto growth between 20-30%. China is accelerating the production of every type of energy: oil, coal, natural gas, hydroelectric, and nuclear. Coal supplies China more energy than oil currently.