Anyone planning to trade/speculate the Ethereum Merge event?

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, Aug 14, 2022.

  1. nekogami

    nekogami

    You are missing an important player: oracle. Without support of chainlink, lending and AMM protocols will collapse and so will the prices of all assets. It will be extremely cheap to do 51% attack on gov tokens to steal all the funds from liquidity pools.

    Additionally, do you think there is enough liquidity to handle the massive dumping pressure of these tokens on the old chain?

    Yuga Labs has outright stated that they will only recognize assets on PoS. Though, I do see some people will speculate and buy assets on the old chain; provided there will be a marketplace for NFT on ETHW?

    What is my play? Leverage up my ETH holding and dump on fork. The risk/reward ratio is not there to hold onto ETHW. There just isn't enough liquidity in the current market condition to absorb the market sell flow.

    In case you haven't noticed, all the big bois have been max bid spot ETH and put quarterly. Guess what they are going to do after the merge? Hint: that put premium is not cheap.
     
    #21     Aug 24, 2022
    johnarb likes this.
  2. johnarb

    johnarb

    I believe LooksRare is a decentralized smartcontract NFT market place

    There are a few small Oracles besides chainlink, but honestly, chainlink smart contracts will exist on ETHW and it's actually an effort to shut them down

    Same with all other platforms like Uniswap, AAVE and Sushiswap

    What's the incentive to submit *IP's to shut the platforms down? If I'm part of the dev team for Sushiswap, LFG, collect these tokens which may be worth little now, but who knows could go up in price

    Yuga Labs will not develop stuff for the NFT's, i.e. Metaverse, or others, but if you own the NFT's on ETHW, the community can still build on that, i.e. all their Apefest or in the case of cryptopunk, nothing at all (joke tounge in cheek)

    As far as the big bois, that's a plus, not a minus

    Small guys get the start on the very beginning with very very low prices. The big bois will dump their crypto assets since they don't believe in ETHW, we will buy YFI tokens or whatever tokens for pennies as they dump

    Now, the small guys will start yield farming and trading degen on dexes using very cheap tokens, anyone can play

    with enough activity and users from ETH start spending more time, who knows

    -----

    But let's be clear, even the person in the article I posted is saying it has a very small chance of not being doomed

    I'm the only one putting a bigger chance and I'm most likely wrong

    But this is different than the failed fork ETC

    Defi summer, NFT explosion, crypto gaming blockchain projects all happened on ETH and no benefit to ETC

    ETHW will get all of those things above. All we need are the users to use them and the attraction is very very cheap prices for all crypto assets on ETHW blockchain versus ETH blockchain

    PS, we want the ETH maxis to dump their erc-xxx tokens on ETHW market place. If they don't dump, how are we going to get them for very very cheap prices?
     
    #22     Aug 24, 2022
  3. nekogami

    nekogami

    Sure but someone still need to clone the frontend/subgraph, make modification, and deploy it. I rather not bet my money on the NFT apes tbh.

    Assuming you can get them at a penny on a dollar, who is going to maintain all these critical protocols to retain its value? Do you think there will be a meaningful amount of deposit/tvl on these protocols that is no longer being maintained by the og team?

    I will take the 99%+ chance of winning and lock in some free money. Hope you will 100x though.
     
    #23     Aug 24, 2022
    johnarb likes this.
  4. johnarb

    johnarb

    Thanks!!

    Very high risk = very high rewards

    The effort is very low. It's exactly the same code with minor tweaks for PoS. The adjustments will actually be for the PoS behavior

    If they make a change x-ImprovementProtocol on ETH, is it so difficult to commit the change on ETHW?

    Good luck to you, too!

    I dumped my BCH fork coins way too early so I guess I can only tell you maybe don't sell your ERC-XXX cryptos on ETHW for too cheap

    I remember dumping my airdropped 2000 UNI's for $5-7 each and you know how high it went

    PS: Front ends should be on IPFS anyway, to be decentralized and unstoppable. AAVE did it
     
    #24     Aug 24, 2022
    nekogami likes this.
  5. nekogami

    nekogami

    tbh, I really don't think I will even have a chance to dump it before it hits $0. Going to get frontrun by MEV bots lol Going to need all the liquidity I can get to support that sell pressure. Get your wallet ready because there will be plenty of tokens to shop :)
     
    #25     Aug 24, 2022
    johnarb likes this.
  6. johnarb

    johnarb

    I will be ready but this is a an asymmetric bet

    No need to bet the farm, I'm thinking $10-15 K is more than enough to throw at this. A 100x will mean 7 figures roi

    Uniswap is more corporate, so is MakerDAO

    I'll be betting more on platforms with rogue teams like Sushiswap MIM/Abracadabra, etc

    They'll need to create new pools, since the stablecoins will be gone so MIM or RAI may dominate

    APR's in the thousands of percents will be a reality once again. DeFi summer would be nice in the middle of crypto winter

    Saw an article headline the winning Ethereum chain was decided by USDC and USDT not by the Ethereum foundation

    Makes sense, over $100B of onchain value from stabablecoins

    If one of the smaller but trusted stablecoins support ETHW, could be very lucrative in addition to the MIM/RAI options. It would strengthen the value proposition of the ETHW blockchain
     
    #26     Aug 24, 2022
  7. johnarb

    johnarb

    NFA

    Ethereum price action has been performing strong as the Merge is approaching in 2-7 days

    Eth had strong recovery from the crypto crash a couple of days ago. I caught some of the upward move yesterday but sold way too early

    Looking into trading any dip on Eth for the next 2 days but may position for short prior to the Merge
     
    #27     Sep 8, 2022
  8. I have little interest in playing trades just to trade on this event. I'm mostly going for the long-haul investing.

    Due to how bad the west has wrekt their economies (daily I am reminded how much worse it truely is), I am feeling more and more there will be a huge sell off after the merge. Sitting on some cash and playing the waiting game right now.
     
    #28     Sep 8, 2022
    johnarb likes this.
  9. johnarb

    johnarb

    Sold too early again. Literally went up another 20 points within 10 minutes after hitting my TP. Check the charts

    Will look for another entry

    Bitcoin offers the same profit potential but much more volatile price on the downside. Eth is stronger price action (at this time)

    NFA

    upload_2022-9-8_14-41-8.png

    upload_2022-9-8_14-42-2.png
     
    #29     Sep 8, 2022
  10. I have a futures spread, hoping it will flip into contango from backwardation.
    I plan to dip into some longs over the event, but I'm betting there will be some volatility and a sharp pullback right after the merge from specs profit taking or closing trades. Then a long, strong rise. Gonna break 5k maybe.
    Gonna get longer on the post-dip. ETHBULL is my golden ticket.
     
    #30     Sep 9, 2022
    johnarb likes this.