Aloha everyone, hope you have all managed to make something from all this crappy shitty market movement we have had since this year started due to the lack of volatility. :/ Im not into predicting the ultimate top and bottom of markets, since theres no way of knowing when the little trend chasing twats will stop, however i do specialise in identifying and trading revesals.. (intraday / weekly/ even monthly sometimes) I focus on trading crude oil, but so i do watch the dow throuought everyday as oil copies it mostly.., and ive seen that the dow has fallen from 8200 t 6680 in a continulous diagonal down trend (but extremely slowly). That is a big big drop to happen without any pullback rally, especially when you look on the daily and weekly chart, its like the beautiful one that we had back in october.. And while i do know that we arent gan have the forune of 600 t 1000points rallies and crashes each day anymore, i am extremely confident that we are gna have a 200 t 300points upmove rally in the next few days, and so im going to be watching the dow very intently tomorrow, and going to buy when i see a reversal formation form.. Since this has fallen from 7800s t 6600 in nearly a constant straight line, and so a rally is coming, and i need those few hunded points. Im just curious if anyone else is planning on buying around this 6650 level (tomorrow) for a bouce of a quick few hundred points??
We bought SPY at $68.85 in afterhours. It is now at $69.35. People are crazy, they sell at bottoms. We do the opposite.
Capitulation? I thought they were going to reprice the indexes because YOU think they are undervalued! Still waiting for you to post the chart of the miracle 10 handle move that ended the last bear mkt by the way...I assume you have no proof of your last "lets pull any statistic out of my ass becuase I know everything statement"
Look fucktard, you are the one who has boasted for the last year and a half how you have mastered this profession...Sucks for you, but what exactly have you gotten right during this time? I'd venture to say nothing, but you come back day after day saying this is it, the bottom, and you have been wrong EVERY fucking time. Now that you are on the ropes we are going to get a rally, but just like always, you will not be participating because you have no stones in the game...You call people with low post counts noobs? My God you are by far the least expericienced person on this site! You have 8x my post count and i've been here almost twice as long, during this time I quietly go about my business taking consistent money out of trading year after year...What do you do? Make completely asinine calls day after day, sell your "posistions" at the bottom, go all in on an "option posistion" get crushed on that, and then magically find more money (after you said it went all on the first "option posistion") and your going to get crushed on that as well! Is that about right? Oh yeah forgot to mention you were not a "man" of your word, qho said we would never have another correction let alone a bear market, and you would get lost if the s&p closed below 1252....As far as I can tell youhave not gotten anything right in a year and a half, but yet you still post here as if you have a track record? Looking forward to your response, little boy. PS where is the chart of the 10 handle move that ended the last bear mkt? At least tell us you dont have one becuase its not true
lol Some beef here i see.. Getting back to the market analysis though, i see the market has risen to just under 6700, which is pretty annoying as i want it to fall overnight so i can buy at lows, not buy after a 100points rise has already happend!! My target is 7062 though, as thats just under the head n shoulders formation that started this down move under 7000.
DOW is heading to 4000 - 5000 range by year end. Forget technical analysis, fundamentals are in command.
It 'could' go down to 5000, maybe even 4000, however its extremely unlikely that its gna go down in a straight line without a few hundred points bounces inbetween.. nd so im gna focus on cashing in from those, instead of trying to Afurther sell something thats down 50% already.
Buying slowly at these levels, with some increase in position as we hit lower levels. Last increment was at 6830 or so. Fully aware of downside risk - size of position to be determined by the depth of the move inferior. If you want to take the fib retracement for an A-B-C correction on the dow, that puts us at around 5500 ish, so will be loading up the boat there - if for no other reason than if we head under 4000, we're so screwed anyway that it really won't matter if I lose 30% overall on this structural position. I'm hearing anecdotes of impending capitulation from 401k style investors which is increasing my bullishness somewhat. I have been over 80% cash/treasuries/non-equity investments on balance for the last year or so, and at some point I need to start re-establishing an equity investment position, so might as well be here. If it goes to zero, the 10% of my portfolio I take a 70% loss on will probably be the least of my problems. I'll be more worried about where my next meal is coming from, and if my urban garden is going to sustain my family.