I suppose I should answer a few questions and add comments. Here goes... Elliot is easy to learn in a bull market as it repeats the 1,2,3,4,5 ABC pattern. In a bear market it is hellish to learn as there are so many possibilities. If you didn't build your skillset on the way up it is a lot harder on the way down. The 3 things you need to master are Pattern, Time & Ratio. A wave pattern has to satisfy all 3 to qualify so it's not just about picking a wave pattern and expecting it to perform. One of the neat things about Elliot is price projections and market structure projections. You can have 2 minor waves and project the complete move. It's not intended to be precise but more to give a feel for the possible amplitude of the move. The beauty is it self corrects the projection as each new wave unfolds and the real goal is the direction and length of the current wave. 1. What % of waves are accurate? It depends on how clear the pattern is. That's where I divorce myself from pure Elliot technicians who insist in trying to see waves in fog and dispuite counts with each other. But of course it also depends on your ability and experience. 2. Software tends to do better in hindsight, at least last time I looked at Advanced GET. 3. If you watch the medical series House on TV where House is the consultant they refer to when they are flummoxed you will see that some decisions are always a mixture of knowledge, skill, intuition and guesswork. Sometimes it so obvious with Elliot and if it's not I'm off. 4. Is there anything more accurate? Yeah, sure there is. But I have no idea if you could make it work either. To round it off, learning any new trading skill requires hundreds of repeat observations followed by hundreds of attempts to refine something you have evaluated as worthwhile. Each of those performances requires time. It takes a lot of time to master Elliot and you might not use it much, but I'm glad I learned how others think as much as how to use the obvious waves.
Elliott Wave is basically a well-structured farce. Every EW person looking at an equity will give a somewhat different opinion. And, since when does an equity move according to someone's theory of how it should move? There is no sound basis for putting an artificial structure on a chart, and guessing where it is in the EW time frame.
I guess the question is whether this 5-3 structure is REALLY supported by evidence. You can eyeball any chart and see that in most cases any up move, in an uptrend, for example, is followed by some sort of retracement. You don't need EW to see that a trend is evolving through zig zags. It's gradually gaining ground, two steps forward, one step back. Then the added value from EW would be the wave cound itself. It claims it can tell you where you are, approximately, in the larger scheme of the trend. If it can do so, as an approximation, even if it's often off target, it may be useful, I think. For example, I think Fibonacci is useful. The precision it projects may be false, but I think it gives a good feel for what can happen. Without getting too philosophical here, I am dealing with the VERY NARROW question of whether I should pay $199 of MY OWN money for forex EW commentary. I think because this type of work is imprecise, it should be free, available for all to use. Say, are there any good EW blogs, where I can sample EW ideas, in actual market conditions? I am inclined to give EW the benefit of the doubt, for now. I like Prechter, he challenges people intellectually. Because traders should experiment with various ideas, I think I might try it out for one month, maybe, but still it's a lot of money. I'm really nervous about this $199 thing. It's basically $200. Haven't read it, so can't pre-judge anything. But I couldn't get a sample of actual pieces of research. All I know is that often (but not always) FREE is better. Thanks for your comments guys. I know the ET community tends to be skeptical most of the time. This is good. If you want to get paid, you better show ME what value you can bring to MY trading, to my business. BUT if you're making an honest attempt to analyze something, I am prepared to give you the benefit of the doubt. That said, I am disturbed by the amount of marketing on Prechter's site. Shouldn't a thinker of Prechter's caliber be more generous?! . . . It almost looks cheap . . .
so some say technical analysis is the bullshit, but people use it in forex and the equity. it give the good clues. can you make money using technical analysis? it is wrong way to ask question . .. anyone made money using the NinjaTrader platform? . .. meaningless question . . . if i am make use the NinjaTrader, i can do it wisely . . .and i make the money . . . if i look at elliott waves, i locate myself in the trend .. . the intellectual effort itself is good, it give byproduct in the form of clue . . . this 5-3 structure, you need to see if it exist you need to look at what EW claims exactly, it does not claim it's precise, and that's a good sign . .. the precision promised by some tools is misleading . . . so at least here we have some intellectual honesty . . . all focus should be on the structure, the wave count . . . EW admit it not precise, but if also it no have the 5-3 structure, then it is also the bullshit
There is a lot of frightening naiveness in this post. Fib has been debunked under serious testing. And how would wave count give anything other than uselessness if not true? Trading methods should be rigorously tested and proven. Not followed and believed.
The good thing about Fibonacci is that it gives you a sense of proportion. A retracement from a meaningful move is probably closer to 40%, than it is to, say, 3%. That's the point. This stuff is meant to refine intuition and be a general guide. It's not a set of instructions.
The Ancient Egypt civilization was brought down by the sea people and the socalled Greek Dark Age lasted about 500 years. The Roman civilization was brought down by the barbarian from the north and Europe Dark Age lasted about 500 years. The European-American civilization may be brought down by the terrorists and may last about 500 years to the year 2500 A.D. Quite an awesome Bear Market everybody is waiting for . Sorry post on wrong thread .
have you seen this before? How to Win in Forex Trading Without Knowing the "Right" Elliott Wave Pattern http://www.forextradingseminar.com/...thout-knowing-the-right-elliott-wave-pattern/
my 2 cents ... Its a tough subject, study it all, all of it - then decide for yourself. As for our esteemed experienced traders Lucrum and Landis ... should get a room (for both) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riFR_UxRwaQ (Landis to Lucrum) .. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSioYLhyVec Have a good one, guys. Luv you all.