IMHO, EW is just as good as the trader using it. Like someone said, it is a very subjective tool, and EWers often have a difficult time agreeing which "wave" the makret is currently in. It's ultimately up to you whether you want to spend time learning a tool that you might have problem getting to work right later, or maybe one that will be your most prized, but one thing is for sure, if you're here to get an "easy" solution, then let me tell you that "easy" solutions don't exist in trading, and a lot of experience you'll have to gain by hard trial and error.
Prechter did not correctly predict the crash. He thought it would carry on from 2003. 4 years too early!!
Anyone using Elliott Wave in forex trading? I'm thinking about getting a subscription to an EW forex commentary. The argument against doing that is pretty strong. Maybe EW catches some patterns in a very general way, but it's not readily tradable. And they may be wrong on timing. I'm just thinking if it makes sense to get a paid subscription to EW research on forex, in addition to the other stuff I'm looking at. Probably not. Any ideas?
I mean is there any added value in getting the EW view on what I'm trading (currencies)? They do stand out from the rest of technical crowd, I'll give them that. It's just I'm not convinced so far that it can contribute to my research. I don't want to pay my hard earned dollars for mere guesswork, if that's what it is. Is it worth the money though? I can do this 5-3 thing myself, for free. It's simply, and nothing to "study" really, as Monty21 has wisely pointed out in an earlier comment in this thread. It's basically three moves up, two moves down in the middle. Should I pay anyone for trying to fit that pattern to the current market situation? I know I sound skeptical, BUT I know clever people who take EW comments into account. So I thought maybe someone using it successfully in forex, just a tool in the toolbox.
It's a tool in the box, as you say. How good are you at using tools? How long does it take you to master any tool? The benefit in watching a master is that you shorten your learning curve or avoid giving up before success, and usually learn twists you wouldn't pick up yourself. The problem comes when you believe one tool is all that is required and it fits every need and every occasion. Learning in this industry usually requires losing money on things that don't work or need to be improved or just don't suit your style or perspective, so there's no point in asking others if it will help you. Does it work? Of course it works, but where and when and for whom is another matter. Get 3 Elliot technicians together and see how many alternative counts you get. Personally I'm glad I learned it even though I seldom use it now. It is a tool that my eye recognizes from time to time as a screamer trade. The rest of the time I have tools that work better for me.
If I remember rightly Elliot was an accountant who had a prolonged illness that caused him to be bed ridden and studied charts as a way to pass the time. Under those conditions you would probbly also see that moving average crossovers worked as did all indicators. Just sell at RSI at 80 and buy back at 20 - look at the historical charts, its very convincing as are waves - on historical charts. You will see wave patterns in individual stocks and they happen dfor a reason but if you try and use them to predict you are barking in the wrong forest (IMHO).
1. 100% on hindsight. dont try it on live mkts 2. no 3. depends on person to person. at the end they all say its my fault not the systems. 4. nothing can be more worse than this. btw did Elliott himself made any money out of this?
Like I said I use very little of Elliot but just so we understand why he came to be famous: it was because he submitted articles to Investors Chronicle calling both the '29 bear market crash in advance of the crash and then calling the bottom and a new bull market when despair and fear gripped the market. Prechter, the most popular Elliot teacher and writer has been trying to repeat this feat with stunning failures. There were Elliot threads in ET. Why not search them and see how they performed? But at the end of it all, I could tell you what works for me and you could make a complete bollocks of it, even if I gave you the entry and exit points some would still screw it up. You have to try it for yourself but if you want to know if anything in the world works, don't listen to those who can't make it work Oh I should add it was a Jew who made his fortune using Elliot who taught me in 1985/6.