Anyone have a reason why the market should go down?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by will848, Jul 1, 2011.

  1. will848


    From what I see, the indexes are insanely low. They should be atleast 30% higher than they are from all the easy money policies.

    Nothing else matters as long as the government gives money away. UE numbers, CCI, debt, etc. all get lost in the wash. Why has the market not been inflated to the 2007 highs yet?
  2. Bob111


  3. m22au


    Yes, interest rates are low and money is easy. But not as easy as it was between November 2010 and June 2011. QE2 has ended.

    Equities declined by a lot between late April 2010 and late August 2010 when QE was not present.
  4. How about you tell us?
  5. achilles28


    If the debt ceiling isn't raised by August 2nd, the market - and economy - will crash far worse than '08....
  6. Locutus


    puhlease. Many posters here are so clueless it's barely funny.

    Please answer the following questions:
    a) How many times in the past have they failed to raise the debt ceiling
    b) How many times when they failed to raise it, has the market or economy experienced *any* downside and how many times has it crashed?
    c) Is it different this time? (i.e. are you a moron?)
  7. achilles28


    You have no idea what you're talking about.

    But hey, if they don't raise it by Aug 2, be that big swinging dick and go long the market. In fact, why not buy now and hold all through July? If they don't get a resolution soon, I'm sure the markets will be as placid as silk. And yes, it IS different this time. Enjoy, dumbass... :D
  8. Locutus


    I personally would've written an august expiration SPY put to you a few days ago. Now the IV is a bit low unfortunately.

    Anyway, same old same old. Stupid people thinking they're genius because this time it's different.

    I've really heard no arguments on why there would be any impact at all except some lame shit like "well the rating agencies said this" or "but I'm really scared :( ". Nobody cares about the rating agencies or you, so whatever.

    Stuff it tough guy, I've bought a few weeks ago and am holding it. Don't know if I will hold it all the way through July. Depends on if I see enough supply coming into the market that could break this massive pounding-up-your-ass uptrend. The decision to hold will certainly have nothing to do with some lamo debt ceiling and the decision to buy had nothing to do wtih Greece either.
  9. achilles28


    Pretty hard to match that kind of incisive analysis and keen grasp of the facts. I don't think I've heard such a convincing argument to get long before... everyone else is "stupid" and the debt ceiling debate is "lame". No, sorry. "Lamo". You ought to be working for the Treasury or NYFED. We NEED geniuses like you to cut through all this partisan brinksmenship and deliver the straight-up goods to Americans: there is no problem with the economy, deficit, or debt. Everything is aokay. Buy stocks!! Or, perhaps in your case, sell spy puts!!! :D

    Tell me something, Forest, you write options for a living? I'll tell you this much, if they don't raise it by Aug 2nd, and screw around for a few weeks thereafter, the market will absolutely hemorrhage, and so with it, your tiddly-winks account when those spy puts get exercised. The market could easily break well before that. DC will probably throw in the towel quick, but there's a good chance you'll get raped.

    Since we're asking questions, why don't you explain to everyone reading why capping the debt will have no impact on the economy, and therefore, the market? Remember: past results are no indicator of future performance...
  10. Locutus


    This is where you go wrong.

    It depends on the sample size whether it is an indicator or not. If past results from event A are consistent over a high number of individual situations spread across time and under very different unique circumstances, you can bet pretty safely that the outcome of that event is going to be the same every time it happens.

    I'm not saying the odds are 100% the market is going to continue to ignore the debt ceiling BS, but definitely not in your favour.

    I have the research somewhere, I'm not going to look it up again. The bottom line is, the debt ceiling has never in the past been a huge problem for any market. If the government has to shut down for a week or even a month, it's still not a huge problem. In fact, that would be a good thing because that would really do its job at getting spending under control.

    Edit: I don't normally trade any US markets including the SPY so no I don't have any position. I was just saying, I would make an exception for you.

    I'm currently holding positions in some European indices and financials. Buying SocGen (which I posted various times about) was a really bad call while pikers like you were still worrying your little socks off about Greece and the crashing economy.
    #10     Jul 2, 2011