Is anyone else thinking of going long on EUR/USD? PS--sorry about the name of the post, did not mean too just say "Hey", and cannot change it
Kastro, glad to see you're still trading after all this time. Most guys blow their acct way before now. What would be your reasoning to go long EUR/USD at this level. My last EUR/USD long was opened at 1.2115, sitting down 71-pips in pain. 1.2044
Below is a thread I started 3 weeks ago. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=50437 I believe that the US Dollar will be at par with the EUR by year end.
Just because it broke 1.1980 does not mean Par is around the corner. As I said in your previous threads, beware of the extremist viewpoint - like the people calling 1.40 by year end.
no way long, after todays aftermath we'll see how much euro reacts next week, but should be looking to sell some more on further breakdowns.
uninvited guest wrote: I believe that the US Dollar will be at par with the EUR by year end. ............................................................................. Excellent commentary I agree that the US currency has weak points...and strong points... and have always wondered what the offsetting trade to an expected weaker dollar is...what needed to be clarified to me...was weaker against what....? Looking at weak versus weak is very tricky...As Buffet and Gates will soon find out....very tricky indeed... So far the consensus is the dollar weaker against the Chinese Yuan....ok...so what other currency has a clearer strong story...??? The other dollar strong story is rising interest rates at the US Central Bank.... The EURO will fail because it erases sovereignty...it takes a few years for countries to find this out...and Italy...Netherlands...France...Equador...and others are finding this out...... The IMF is nothing more than a US policy impositioner...which is why the US is losing much of its respect worldwide....
I am long USD from 1.3480 and still holding. You can check my posts about this being a stealth USD Bull from those levels. Below is my post from 2/7/05 as a reply to Buffett's shorting USD. There is a quote by Gin_N_Tonic which I replied. PhiSigmaIota Registered: Dec 2004 Posts: 118 02-07-05 10:06 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote from Gin_N_Tonic: Neither one of these guys got wealthy trading currencies. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- That is the best point ever made, good call.. Europe is not in very good shape imo wrt to GDP growth and extremely high unemployment numbers. Also they have to integrate and subsidize the new EU members. On the personal level(not in trading acct) I am long USD all the way from 1.3480 and still holding. Hopefully it will go to par in 1 year)
Euro and Europe have their share of problems, that's for sure, but if you want to read a "balanced" view on the issues, read this: http://www.safehaven.com/article-3354.htm
I know a few smart people who were looking to go long EURUSD ... Technical divergences, etc. Me, I got short today (1.1979, missed my target entry at 1.1991). I'm not sure EUR and USD will be at par, but I suspect they will get a lot closer than anyone thinks over the next several weeks/months ...