Anyone experienced what I am experiencing ?

Discussion in 'Hook Up' started by trader5514, Mar 13, 2013.

  1. I had spent over 8 years on day trading and finally developed computer software having an edge, out of sample back tested on 5 years minute by minute data.

    That's good news for me, the bad news is I am out of trading capital. In the last 8 years I lived on the money I made from part time trading while I was a computer programmer. I have been looking for a job for a while, but the job market is tight, plus my computer skill is out date.

    I know there are some experienced traders here. Has anyone had similar experience ? Spending many years searching for an edge, but out of money when finally "got it" ? If so how did you find money and rise up again ?

    I wish I were a pretty women so I could sell my body for a while to raise money. But ...

    Thanks for sharing your experience with me.
    If you want to call me a loser, I'll say "yes I am and thanks for reminding me."
     
  2. What's the minimum capital your system takes to function?

    Thanks,

    surf
     
  3. You have demonstrated a dedication to trading. Do you have the ability to sit in front of a computer and trade daily? Trading is no different than any business and it requires work and study. I have been full time for 10 years, and before that I traded part time another 10years. If you want to make a living at it and can't get hired by a firm then I question your program, and what its value. If it makes money you or a firm would trade it today. I have been in negative numbers in the process of learning this business, and I am getting the payback now. If you have something that works step up to the next risk level and trade it yourself. If it is gold you can probably find a firm, or better yet it makes you money and you keep it all.
     
  4. The question here is how to find money.

    You can find money right now by cutting those expenses:
    Car,,
    Cancel the cable bill (projected to be average household $200 a month by 2020) netflix is $8 bucks/month I think,,
    Thermostat bill,,
    Food bill (if you eat out, breakfast only = cheapest, or just go paleo),,
    Average home size has doubled since 1970 (1400 sq ft avg then), means a lot of maintenance if you are just one person, move.

    Find $500 a month in savings and there is $6,000 per year, depending on your taste for risk, start after 1 year or 3.

    Work smarter not harder.
     
  5. Are you in Nigeria? If so you should be able to find somebody with extra capital.
     
    VPhantom likes this.
  6. More about my system: I made some data discoveries by exploring over 10 years minute-by-minute data. I first found out that the system can predict the intraday price ranges (on average) , that gives me an edge on where to cut loss. Further the system can predict the market direction (with 55% accuracy), that gives me another edge. I tested SP500 over 5 years data (out of sample, not using any prior testing date data), the annual return is about 29%, with total return of 270%, while in the same period, SP500 stayed almost flat.

    encouraged by this result, I applied the same parameters (cut loss percentage, market directions, etc.) without any changes to Russell 2000 in slightly different period, but still a 5 year period, the system got even better results, 34% annual return. After this I knew I was onto something.

    The maximum draw down of my system is about 8%.

    If I want to make a living from this system, I'll need $400k capital, which I had before I worked out my system. Now I don't even have $10k. Without 2 years actual trading records, no firms will even consider using my system.

    I have been cutting costs, no dining out, no new cloths, no health insurance for many years.

    Now I'll have to sell my house to cut costs further, but at a huge loss, I bought at $400k, now worth $330k, but I'll get some money out of selling.


    I am trying to get a computer job now. After a month, I got 3 phone interviews, and one onsite interview in several days. A small start-up is interested in hiring me at half of the market price. While I developed my system, I used data-mining, machine learning, etc., those things are somehow in demand. Considering that I was out of the job market for 8 years, I am grateful for this opportunity. I had a PhD degree in applied math from an Ivy League school, maybe that can sell a little bit. But in this environment, if you are not hands-on and can get things done quick and well, no one cares what degrees or experiences you had before, which is also fair.
     
  7. BSAM

    BSAM

    Good advice, brother Satchel.
    Most people are "overcarred" and/or "overhoused".
     
  8. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    You had $400K.

    You spent 8 years working on a trading system.

    From your tale of woe, it seems you weren't earning any money during the research & development phase, so why live such an expensive lifestyle ($50K/year)?

    I realize the answer to this question is meaningless, but your story doesn't make sense.
     
  9. If I wrote every detail, it might become a novel. I actually grew 7k to over 400k in a period of 7 years. That gave me the confidence to quit my job. During the first year of my full time, my money doubled to 800k. But I got over confident and lost half of my capital on 3 biotech phase III results, and I was down to 400k again. From there I began to search for a consistent way and I studied TA. Without data support, I couldn't convince myself, so i bought data and started to write program to analyze those data.

    The whole journey was 8 years, but the actual time of developing system was less than that. But without first hand experiences, I couldn't have developed it.

    I didn't say I spent 50K a year all by myself. I need to feed some other people. All traders live alone ? No kids ? No wives ? You pay $2500 on housing, average $500 on all expenses you can't get away with (car related, utilities related, etc.), a few hundreds on food, what you have left ?

    Looking back, I was too slow to cut expense, I always felt I almost got it. But those were allusions without evidence. From now on, everything have to be facts based, meaning supported by data.
    I have no one to blame but myself. I was just curious if anyone had similar experience. It doesn't have to make sense to everyone.
     
  10. That pretty much sums it up.
     
    #10     Mar 25, 2013