Anyone else wondering about the yen carry trades?

Its nearing the end of the Japanese Financial Year and lots of US dollar earnings will be repatriated as well.
Its the end of the carry trade and the big players know it and thats why the market took a 400+ point dump on Tuesday THEY GOT IN FIRST!
The extremely cheap yen was used to speculate on Gold, Emerging Markets all types of rubbish asset classes



Its the end now

 

We're all going to die!

The market has topped. There is a 20% chance of a huge short squeeze for
the Quadruple Witch March Options Expiration, but we will be going down
for at least 6 weeks and 15%-25%. 1350 S&P is the bullish pivot, below
which a major break would take place lasting until November, which will
be the low of the year in any event. March 7th & 23rd are the big cycle turns.

Gold and Oil may be in long
term bull trends but they need a
small one year bear market that is
now half over. The second leg down
or the ‘C” leg of an ‘A’ ‘B’ ‘C’
pattern should be starting now.

Should break to $540-$580 before next bull leg up to $1000.

OK...be gentle.

 

As traders, we do not care. Traders just trade anything moving.

 

Excellent attitude!

 

Its not only then Yen, the Swiss Franc has been very profitable as well, mind you l had to endure 2 false trades(whipsaw). For all their arrogance, fancy computers the hedgies & banks are yet to realise just crowd orientated they are ! Sure enough once in a while they get it right, but not for long. There are a couple hedgies that may sink in next few weeks. This painting was finished weeks ago folks and it was just drying out. Imagine being squeezed both ways (equities & YEN/CHF ) . Serves them right for trying to chase Alpha !

 

Some guys will die, some newbies wiil be born.
Just from one pocket to another, the game will continue...

 

102 level should be reached around may 2009

Probably Bulish early this week
from 116.20 to 116.00
Target 118.5 at least by mid week
Might do as strong north as what it did south

 

Quote from rhymeswithorang:

According to Goldman Sachs, the latest jump in the Vix (a measure of stockmarket volatility) took it eight standard deviations from its average. If conventional models are correct, such an event should not have happened in the history of the known universe.


Thats why l call myself Cygnus Atratus, l believe in 10 Sigma events happening.

Beyond the realms of your wildest imagination....

 

I like that stdev talk...but what average is that...
U see using Normality assumption...U have 6 sigma
If U use no assupmtion 6 sigma assumes =1/6^2 error from the average---> 1/32
if want to use no assumption (Given that U know where the most unbiased avergae is)
then use 8.5 sigma
1/8.5^2 error
is ok if you do not know the least biased average...
been working on this for some years
with that 8.5 Sigma...Even if your error was about 20% effienciant with avg
You would still make money

PS: Relative effiency is measure of one model to another in terms of Standard devaiton Squred ratio
ie one model has a variance of A
Another model has Variance of B
Realtive efiency =Varaiance of A/Var of B
The smaller the better in Favour of A
GL

 

carry trades have just started unwinding last week. This is something that will take months and even maybe years to unwind completely, so expect ups and downs as we go along. Japanese Govt. will do everything to make sure things don't get out of hand, likewise US govt. It's gonna be fun as everyone struggles along in next few months etc. http://lauristonletter.blogspot.com/