EW and Fib have about the same amount of value as the Infield Fly Rule does to actual trading in real time. My favorite guy is Arch Crawford who combines astrology with technical trading. Nice guy, but hopeless No one ever shows a successful trader who use technical tools to trade. Great to discuss but worthless in trading and becoming more worthless by the month. IMHO SteveD
Don't know anything about EW, but RP did do a study/work I thought was interesting about pop-culture and reactions in the markets.... The basic gist was that at times of tops you get shows on TV about the markets (The Street, Bull, 2000 remember that!), or stuff like Who wants to be a Millionaire...(once a week, to 7 times, to done by 2002) And at/near lows you tend to get real serious stuff in movies, TV and Music, (like the low in 94 as Nirvana and Pearl Jam stuff was peaking etc) He goes further to state that ANYTIME Donald Trump is popular, the market has peaked.. It all sounds good in theory... but last I looked WWTBAM is back on TV with a 10MM top prize, and Trump is dribbling on himself with the attention over the Apprentice, and is even whoring himself in commercials now.... SP has made zero headway since Maybe something to watch? Best, David
David, thanks for mentioning that theory. i read about it a couple of months ago and kind of forgot about it. it is entertaining to see the odd cultural trends repeat. it's almost funny. damn near comical. but if it does happen, i'll be standing there thinking "No f'ing way!", shrug it off, and keep trading the trend. next thing ya know i'll be looking for signals in my corn flakes omni
I never make fun of ellioticians. I encourage them to trade the ES early (first hour and a half) and late (last hour). This last month they have been there for me, making it a little bit easier to find buyers and sellers. I appreciate their participation and urge them to continue. Hang in there. Steve46
A moving average or any other stochastic indicator or filtering also gives a bias. And if you think that market is roughly random then there are just the same kind of non-sense. Those who pretend that these indicators are more "scientific" have a litle sense of what "scientific" means. A little knowledge is dangerous: if you don't master Elliott then don't pretend to judge at least when there are now serious scientific clues about some degree of validity : Remind of this paper from Scientists Sornette and Bouchaud - Bouchaud is a laureate of IBM scientific young physics researchers specialised in "econophysics" (and my own model confirms theirs, also the advantage of my model contrary to elliott theory doesn't introduce AD HOC any fib ratio that's why I could really prove that these ratios are real and not pure illusions since they are the consequences of something more profound which is of economical nature and not psychological one contrary to what prechter affirms). <IMG SRC=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=419012>
And of course, if it goes up, it is because of the bullish count. If it goes down, it is because of the bearish count. It always works beautifully...
If I am not mistaken, Paul Tudor Jones once stated in the Market Wizards book that he believed in the Elliot Wave and employed it in his trading activities. I am not a EW expert, but from the fact the PTJ is a short-term trader, I guess EW could be useful when trying to predict price target and determine the risk/reward ratio.