Anyone else think Elliot Wave is a bunch of hooey?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by swtrader, May 22, 2004.

  1. I look at the public charts list on, and am amazed at how many EW followers there are

    Although some EW concepts do play out in the market, it seems most who follow are continually adjusting their wave count and alternate wave count.

    In other words, the market will either go up or down, either way, my model told you so.

    While I admit sometimes EW patterns play out, what these people never seem to admit is that often the market DOESN'T adhear to EW patterns.

    Seems like this method puts a dangerous bias into the head of the trader, trying to see a pattern that isnt there, and ignoring what is going on.
  2. yes.

    But then most TA is hooey. But it is a big business, so don't expect the truth to ever come out.

    Look at how many people take astrology seriously? Or believe in a literal interpretation of ancient religious texts, etc etc.

  3. pspr


    Detailed Elliot is for market theorists not market traders.
  4. I have found that EW is as valid as most of the other ways to trade stocks in the 60 minute and up time frame. EW counts can change too much with lower time frames and you get whipsawed too much. But then there are many other TA methods that will whipsaw you also in low time frames. EW is also not easy to learn. It takes a long time to fully understand all the nuisances and most traders are not willing to invest the years it takes to learn this. And you can not blame them because there are other ways to trade that will produce equal results that are much easier to learn. EW is a fascinating concept and those who make a living using it , I think do so because they enjoy the learning and puzzle of it and are willing to invest the time because the challenge of it drives them. Technical Analysis in it self is not a panacea. I have found that it is best to use all TA as a way to identify the trading opportunities and not necessarily as the way to trade.
  5. Elliott "purists", those who try to perfect their knowlegde and trading using *mainly* Elliott wave theory do not make any money.

    Traders who claim they sometimes "use" Elliott wave to make money, can make a profit but it is usually not because they "know" Elliott at all. In fact, their wave counts are often totally wrong. But because they're good traders to begin with and really not adhering to the theory, they do ok in the long run.

    Forget the wave crap. It won't make you any dough.
    Does Prechter make his money from trading or from his "publishing biz"?
  6. Yes, Elliot Wave is nonsense. Trash.
  7. roncer


    In the 80s Prechter was the guru with EWT. He just nailed the big picture consistently back then. I know a number of old pros that use it. It's not for me but I very much like to see something that looks 5 waves before entering. Oh Yes.
  8. ive been telling ppl this for ages....this shit is irrelevant at best and missleading at worst.......i used to wk as an fx mkt maker......and we used to sit around and make jokes about ppl who used anlytical approaches such as EW! what a crock!
  9. EW theory was the first theory of price movement I came across back when the S&P contract was introduced. I used EW to trade gold and sp successfully 'pre' computers with hand drawn point and figure and Daily charts. Although wave counting was and can at times be impossible until after the fact, counting bars was very helpful.

    I'll always recommend the Frost/Prechter book be read if only to provide an idea of common price movement patterns and by way of an introduction to the use of the fibo levels tool, but to drop trying to use EW if it doesn't immediately appeal.

    Now trading fx, the fibo tool is invaluable, something I believe Elliott was the first to bring to the attention of traders — the fibonacci ratio, and Lucas counts work very well for me. Certainly there are other methods with which to trade with, mechanical trading signals, fundamental data, indicators etc, and each to his/her own.

    I wouldn't say that I only use EW to trade with, I do tho use it for price movement analysis, and it is then a component in my trading.
  10. Lucrum


    I agree with what several guys have said. Some of the basic theories / patterns may, with certain trading strategies, be somewhat useful but I wouldn't get too bogged down with all the sub wave stuff. In fact I've "known" guys through message boards that at one time tried to use EW exclusively and all but one or two of them gave up and went to something else.

    One of the funniest statements one of those guys posted once was:

    " I've got both a bullish count and a bearish count"

    translated from wavespeak into english that means the market might go up or.... it might go down.
    #10     May 22, 2004