Swapping treasuries for reserves causes inflation, that's a new one. Where was all the rampant inflation during the time of QE ?
1. Swapping treasuries for "reserves" doesn't cause inflation if those "reserves" came out of the money supply. But when these "reserves" as you call them are newly printed money buying treasuries with those newly printed "reserves" clearly will cause inflation over the long term under the simple principle that price of goods = money supply / amount of goods. This is rather simple stuff here... 2. That inflation is here NOW, lol, again this shit is not that hard to figure out...
As long as the US still allows corrupt politicians to buy votes by doing stupid stuff like forgiving bad debts to those who don't want to pay for their own stupidity.... you can't blame it all on the FED.
Yes, were i involved in those markets. I would have done it sooner though, when it was clear to all of us where we were headed (When Summers was first saying we needed 5% unemployment.) I anticipated that the Powell fed was going to be very old fashioned, and just keep raising until cost of credit began to really hurt. I think FOMC's projection of future rates is too low. Again, it's because, imo, fed monetary policy is fighting upstream against a strong, full-employment economy, which is a typical phillips curve type situation. This economy doesn't want to lie down and say "uncle". We've got a trillion dollars of new infrastructure spending over the next decade! I keep editing more into this post as I think more about it. Volcker took the funds rate to double digits!, and put many out of work. No "soft landing". I can't dismiss the idea that the present situation may be more difficult to deal with than what volcker faced.
During the time of the so called "great money printing" called QE, inflation was in check. Pretty simple to see unless you're a Republican. Are there any nonconservatives out there who thinks the current inflation wasn't supply chain driven? Anyone not see the shift between goods and services over the past year ? How about corporate greed and artificially keeping prices high? (An easy case is what happened at car dealer auctions, how some big dealers were removing vehicles at the last minute to boost car prices for those who needed inventory). Or do you believe Republicans that all the so called trillions of printed money over the past decade just decided to buy shit over the past year ?
I am of the belief that the supply-chain constraints are a major cause of the inflation we see now. They started when everyone stayed home and the backlogs of goods flowing through the economy peaked, and we are now seeing the effects of it this year. Giving people incentive to stay home by giving them free money, thus having them rethink their career choices and delay their return to the workplace exacerbated the issue. Ripple-effects take time to thrum their way through an economy. And we see this year what those effects of the previous two years' actions have on inflation. The damned Putin invasion added to it much more, since the rising price of Crude affected the cost of transporting the goods. Sauce for the inflation goose.
I wouldn’t worry about it. The Democrats passed the “Inflation Reduction Act”… and printed a trillion dollars along with it. We’re all saved