i agree the current median price should even out aroun $55-65bbl. This is not a bubble as if it were real estate or the internet as a fad. this is a supposed non renewable resource which is growing scarecer by the minute which we are 100% dependednt on, but have no GOOD alternatives at the moment that are as inexpensive or create as much energy per unit. If it ever touches $40-45 range again....I will walk to work for a week...you can hold me to that! i simply dont see how it is feasable. we have reached a point of realization that we are running out, and there arent many untapped places left...to the point to where the president wants to drill in national parks! read up on PEAK OIL as mentioned earlier..it is scary amigos. Have a good weekend.
The reality is that tapping more of the sources here in this country doesn't make economic sense until oil levels out at above the 50 a barrel price. Ironic isn't it. If we tap our outer shelf and other places as we bring more local oil on line, the price will drop. So in short, we need to use up foreign oil first then tap ours. As long as Americans have money to spend, oil isn't going back to the 45 level any time soon. Now if we go into a recession, that's another story. I'll say it again, if you think we're going back to below 50 a barrel, no stock is going to be worth owning because we'll be in a recession. Even if we here in America conserve through technology, the world's consumption will continue to grow due to their economic expansion. It will take years for economies such as India to become less energy dependant. Right now, they don't even have enough energy supply for their entire country. Emerging markets are rocking right now and it is a basic economic FACT that the more emerging your market is, the more energy you will consume. Why do you think Brazil has gone over to heavy government subsidies for ethanol, because they have a heavy energy dependant economy. The heavier the actual weight of the products that your economy produces, the more energy you will have to consume in order to produce those products. Think about that one.
That is a worst case scenerio prediction where Iran would stop producing oil because of political conflicts. If Iran were to stop producing oil I think that price could be very realist.
long term future prices of oil will be determined by the demand side of the equation not a reduction of supply
how do you figure? it will be both. the demand curve is increasing, and the supply is dwindling. I think IF prices stabalize at all it will be due to lack of demand...mainly an alternative if we can find a good one! I imagine it will boil down to more effecient mass transport rather than biodiesel or other alternatives.