Yes, agree 100% with everything you wrote. The only thing I would add is "biggest and quickest bang for bucks adjusted for risk". IMO, the lowest risk, highest reward time to buy is during the long term accumulation phase, rotate out of them during the long term distribution phase and into another asset class that is in long term accumulation.
There's different ways to look at it. Stocks for example coming off a long term floor often move slowly. Think about this, a stock at the bottom of a curve has the headwinds of numerous resistance level, so it will be buffetting against numerous points. Initially coming off a floor is heavy going, the crowd isn't too enthusiastic chasing it. Near a top, price has less resistance, runs faster, goes parabolic more often. So what do you want, a slow long term plodder or a fast get in take the money and run?
I get what you're saying but you're only seeing part of the picture. I'm the guy who would have bought Apple at $0.25 in 2002 with the industrial insiders and sold it at $7.00 to the crowd chasing it in 2007, bought it back again at $3.00 in 2009 and sold it at $200 in the summer (2024). That is 140% CAGR. Uranium is another case, I built up positions when it was at $28 (would have bought at $24 in 2019 if had known then what I know now), it tagged $100+ in its 1st leg up in Q1 this year. By the time traders recognized it was a hot market, my positions were already up 3x - 4x. And there's still a long way to go before we get to the parabolic phase. Neither, I prefer to take my time and slowly back up the truck when an asset is under long term accumulation. Let it appreciate at +100%/year, while I sleep, travel with family, golf and post on ET. Then rotate out of it as it goes parabolic and slowly back up the truck to load up on the next asset under long term accumulation. Wash, rinse, repeat. I'm too old to get in / get out fast, LOL! The same as my mentors, who were institutional traders / investors and have been doing this for 50+ years.
Do you know Stan Weinstein’s Stage Analysis ? That’s a good point. Overhead resistance might be something to take into account, especially if you have multiple stocks, etfs, to play with. Usually they look at the 52wks high, not all time high but it’s something to keep in mind. The security with the best relative strength should outperform the others. There are other factors to take into account like liquidity and such … usually the leader is the one to be in.
“Stages” is concept that has been all over the place since wyckoff and maybe even before but that’s what your approach reminded me. Looking to buy accumulation phases and sell distribution ones. Nice !
My trading system is designed to generate a profit edge even when considering my desires and foolish decisions.