I've already started adding bullish positions. I'm a bit early, but I've got some leeway. I'm a little bit worried with the DOW Kuwait bailing out and world tensions. But it seems as though Pakistan and India don't want to fight, and the futures Sunday evening are down a bit, but only a bit. No major panic. As of the time of this post Asian markets also aren't panicing to any news. I think they're just waiting to see what happens in the US tonight. If there is a big bounce then I think alot of traders will be jumping in. I'm a newbie so these are just my newbie opinions. Here's a great video on by a non newbie trader I follow: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ix5H5uiQt8g
The Tim Geitner gains of October 21st and 24st still holding. The market should trend much higher from here.
I would be selling, DOW is headed back to new fresh 52 week lows and should drop this time below 7000, I think 6500 is coming sometime in the 1st quarter of 2009..... Bull isn't coming back for at least another 5 years.
Don't underestimate the stock market. It can surge 5-10% for no apparent reason at all, and keep those gains as was the case in October 2002.
I completely agree that we will see more downside. I trade against the OP. We had some short-term bullish signals already since November 9. I am long since then. Now the opposite has proven true, the strength is vanishing and we may soon see more momentum to the downside. I dont like to attach any hard numbers, why would anyone know where we trade to from here but the momentum to the downside is again here. Unless I see the market proving my position incorrect I stay short from here (entered just few days ago). I put on some long downside put position initially delta hedged and vols seem pretty firm at this point. I may benefit from both. If I see my net delta turning positive (no re-hedging) I may cover the delta or take off the position completely. Saying that we are right before a bull market is in my opinion pure wishful thinking.....at least the market and fundamentals dont support such view whatsoever.
sure why would it not be able to. But what is 5-10% these days anyway. The name of the game is to trade reduced size with wider stops. But a 5-10% move to the downside rather than upside looks way more probable that is what momentum clearly shows right now. I dont care what happened 2002 nor do I care what happened yesterday, I want to care what the market tells me right now and we clearly see weakness in the market again after those last couple weeks of moves away from the previous bottom.
The gains made on November 21 & 24th were on huge volume. Those lows won;t be broken easily. It would take dreadful news for that to happen.
well keep on predicting, I in the meanwhile follow the markets. And I seriously urge you to overthink your GOOG strategy (I think it was you in another thread) ;-)
You're not early, if anything you're late, there's already been a ~25% rally of the lows and you're buying what the "early" folks are already selling. May still be a good move to make, who knows, either way it should be a hell of an interesting '09.