Anyone catch this 8 day rally

Discussion in 'Trading' started by topguntrader, Oct 18, 2002.

  1. Pattern for SPY, volumes, high and low for day and close

    10/02/02 56,850,300 85.53 82.60 83.15
    10/03/02 55,562,000 84.60 81.95 82.31
    10/04/02 68,724,304 82.92 79.58 80.80
    10/07/02 53,217,600 81.20 78.55 79.13
    10/08/02 79,534,800 81.31 78.20 80.37
    10/09/02 79,916,496 79.70 77.78 78.10
    anyone buy here???
    10/10/02 76,759,000 81.07 77.07 80.63
    10/11/02 82,322,704 84.73 81.82 84.16
    10/14/02 40,617,500 84.85 83.04 84.63
    10/15/02 82,456,400 88.72 86.85 88.70
    10/16/02 63,583,200 87.80 85.92 86.55
    10/17/02 68,606,496 89.30 87.85 88.27
    10/18/02 88.64
    If you did you were a big winner

    To be honest with you I had the idea but did not jump in at the low...What now when should we short this puppy?.. how many more days rally?.. I need some help
     
  2. Boy does this ever look like the same bounce off the July lows. If the pattern holds then we'll get a minor retest of the Oct lows and another rally then a great shorting opp.
     
  3. of Dynamic Trader fame, anticipated the low on 10/10/02 based on Elliot Waves. If you notice extreme values of Tick (from 10/02 through 10/10 we had negative values of Tick below -1000 with the exception of 10/03, with the extremum on 10/10 at -1341, rarely ever seen) it was kinda obvious that we were getting close to the bottom. As usual the bottom is better seen in hindsight, but there were signs of it coming. And we had a VIX bullish divergence, lower prices at lower than before values of VIX.
     
  4. Sorry, can't reply to this in more detail, have to close the deal on the South Seas Island I'm buying with the profits.
     
  5. I usually dont do this....but I have been LONG IBM at 62.35 on 10.15.02 for 20K shares........
    I think I will cover on Monday.........
    Not bad for nothing huh.
    Nothing like trading huh.
     
  6. tntneo

    tntneo Moderator

    someone in sync with the markets was covering short not going long at the time you are talking about.
    counter trend moves are very difficult to catch. great if you did.

    the fun time was the retracement, this was easily catchable although a bit dangerous (counter trends again are not safe).

    on the shorter time frame, this rally was great fading gaps everywhere for a quick profit with the specialist.
     
  7. Mir

    Mir

    This was not a surprise to those of us who follow the COT numbers. These numbers have turned bullish the Dow in the past few weeks and about 10 days ago they went over 60% bullish. S&P is at 49% (within the error bar of bullish) and Nasdaq at 46% (close but no cigar yet.)
     
  8. bone

    bone ET Sponsor

    Which day?