Although we came off the lows and had a nice move up, I hesitate to call this a rally. Thursday a week ago we had a doji on NQ and hammer on ES. (after a long grinding downtrend) Then last friday we had a bullish day which left my daily stochastics giving a bullish signal coming off the bottom. Narrow range consolidation for monday. Then tuesday we had a bull day bouncing off the 15 pd ma that has now begun to slope up. Daily stochastics were very bullish on tuesday. Wednesday and thursday were both consolidation days with prices ending relatively close to where they opened, down some with thurday being the tighter range of the 2 days. Friday with daily stochastics still bullish and wednesday and thursday basically consolidation days. Chances were getting higher for an upside breakout. Prices dipped down through the 15ma on my nq daily chart on the oil fire news. (I trade nq so that's the chart that I look at most often) I went long nq when price dropped to 991 and got stopped out at 987.50 for minus 3.5. Then I made another quick assessment of all that I was seeing and went long again at 987. At this time I knew nothing of the news, I was just playing price action. So I sat on my 987 for a few minutes and sold the first weakness that I percieved to be a stall @ 993 for plus six.......Wahhh......lol....Woulda, shoulda, coulda and all that. Oh well, my greatest weakness has been and still is, letting profits run. (still had a green day, but man o man, had a super entry and only milked it for 6 points out of a possible 34)*fear of losing money, plain and simple* Anyway back to the topic. Why wouldn't we at least move (rally) back up to or near the top of the last 3 days' trading range, especially with the daily stochastics being as bullish as they were. The question now is, will we break out of this range to the upside? ES 852 area and NQ 1022 area. My guess is *probably so* I think that NQ has upside potential to hit 1062 area this week. Of course it also has potential to hit 700....lol....*Anything CAN Happen!!!* I'll have to wait and see, just like everyone else. Looking at my daily NQ 15 pd ma sloping up and my stochastics for same, near 80 band and still pointing north, I am inclined to *think* that we have better odds of a continuation higher. I have drawn an uptrend line from last fridays(14th) low up connecting this fridays low. I also have drawn a line at the same angle touching the highs on tues.- 18th and wed. 19th. creating an ascending channel. I will soon enough see whether or not price trades within this channel or not. It's just a guideline, nothing more. On my weekly NQ chart I have a downtrend channel drawn, so unless the market breaks out of that, I'm not really looking for a whole lot of upside.(weekly stochastics on my setup still looking bearish) But hey, I'm a daytrader. So as long as it moves....place an entry, place a stop and let her rip. (still got work to do on that 'rip' part)
Why are you guys trying to explain what happened? There is no point in trying to explain all the market moves nor do I see any point in trying to predict market moves with targets etc especially intraday. Best way to explain would be to find where the longs and the shorts were, look at the chart for that. harrytrader: what's your website ? If you are going to post charts at least provide a clear explanation or otherwise you are just going to join the other euro clowns who have been posting esoteric systems to trade minis.
i dunno what happened to me, then. i didn't even learn of the barge fire until after lunch -- somehow I missed the headline. However, I didn't miss the action in the OSX. i'm mindful just now of something Jesse Livermore (Larry Livingstone) said (paraphrase): It's not wise to be too concerned with the news behind a price move.
If you are blind explanations have been posted above. As for being an euro clown I don't need to join I pretend to be an euro-clown, being a clown is as serious as any other stupid profession like trader do you realise that ? P.S.: don't try to give the "humble" pretext of the guys who can't predict nothing, just say you can't, it's not your fault if you're like that.
"Why are you guys trying to explain what happened? There is no point in trying to explain all the market moves nor do I see any point in trying to predict market moves with targets etc especially intraday." I agree with Kicking, the less I think about why the market is doing what it doing and just trade my edges. the better I do. If you can trade the news and it works for you great. I have found over the long haul that what I may find is important and the market finds is important are usually to different things. For me, the more I focus on price action the clearer it becomes. To each his own, some people like chocolate icecream and some like vanilla. regards, Bruce Hawkins
Hi Bruce, As a price action alone trader...one of the key concepts is to understand how NEWS such as Key Economic Report releases and Breaking News impacts prices. (I on a few occassions trade via price action alone) I'll be more than happy to show you via some charts (if you need) of how price action suddenly reversed a trend as soon as the news event was release or hit the markets. In fact, I remember on many many occassions where...for example...prices are trending nicely up to a certain time...haven't reach any key pivot points nor resistance levels to reverse dramatically and lose all of its gains... simply via the news event of an announced (not surprise) interest rate cut by the Fed. Emotions/psychology move in and out of the markets each and every trading day and news events has considerable impact on such emotions/psychology. Simply, I was under the impression the conversation that slowly shifted from the original question is about reacting to price signals after a news event suddenly and dramatically change the price direction into a new trend. Thus, I don't think the conversation is about anticipating a news event...if that is what you meant. Anticipating is a losers game for most wheras reacting has the better odds. Why is learning how to react or understanding price action...any trader that's in the dark about an important news event may not understand why prices didn't respect a particular chart patter setup...pivot point that held so well the past few days...support/resistance levels that held so well the past few days. I remember a particular Jan where a guy that was Short heavy on about 20 contracts in the ES with a nice +1.50 profit...he never followed any news...never watch CNBC nor Bloomberg nor CNN nor watch any news channel that's good at picking up breaking news in the world... (note: He has a 3 point stop/loss protection in place and his profit-target on the trade was +6.5 points for his intraday position...I still have the chat room log) the market suddenly pop...unexplainable at first...about 2 points...in one chat room I was in...everybody was yelling "SURPRISE RATE CUT and DONT USE MARKET ORDERS"... the guy that didn't follow news...was in another chat room where everybody has a bad habit of lurking...nobody said anything....all of a sudden...him and a few traders (about 2mins after the fact) start posting... WHY DID THE MARKET SUDDENLY POP? (I immediately started laughing and thinking of a bunch of traders in a dark basement, using AOL, on a 56k modem that actually only got 33k on old 486 laptops with Windows 3.1 as an operating system...planning how they were going to spend their profits from the current Short position... not aware that up those stairs and outside somewhere in the light...SURPRISE...SURPRISE) Had he been paying attention...he may have been able to Cover his position for a lesser loss instead of waiting for it to be stopped out -3 points. Simply...he would have reacted to what the market was saying...price action. (note: Something did go wrong with his stops and he actually suffered a bigger loss on some of his contracts) Something they say in the military... "Stay Alert...Stay Alive" Wish all good trading today and make this Friday another nice pay day. P.S. I highlighted in your quote with red of what I thought you could also be talking about comparing price action to opinions of where the market may go. Thus, I completely agree...traders should leave their opinions at the door before putting on a position. NihabaAshi