My own personal trading hasn't been so good lately and I've (partially) identified the problem of holding too many positions at any one time. Because of that I tend to loose track, my mind changes from trader to investor (bag holder is a more accurate word). Anyhow I've been saved as my wife is better at this game. But we work together determining entry and exit price levels as we both have different methodologies and we discuss and come to an agreement. So what I've done is stopped buying, several weeks now. I will add, I play a mildly dangerous game in as I prefer penny stocks and when these guys go down often they stay down for very long periods. In the meantime I've been coding new strategies and coming up with some great ideas. Anyhow creating new strategies though are hit and miss affairs, it is really about experimenting numerous ideas, maybe 95% of ideas will fail and you're left with 5% which work. I would like to automate but there are too many complications imo.
I am guilty of this as well. I notice that when I put up a simple RSI on a fast chart, I see that my entries are usually far too late, and always just before it rolls over, even if I do have the direction right. But RSI is of course also not the holy grain. Often it can be overbought or oversold and then it keeps going in the same direction as the RSI balances out. (ie. There is no pullback in an overbought reading, and with just a bit of sideways action, with price barely dropping, it now reads oversold, so if you're short, you're fucked) But saying all this, I also see how I need to understand that perhaps 50% of the time, no matter how well I follow entry rules, it won't lead to it instantly going in my direction. So now the question is do I wait... or do I exit... or do I scale in.... or do I take the opposite side of the trade. Once again, roughly half the time, scaling in works very well. My point with all of this is to ask you if you really can say that buying at the top of the move is something that you should never do, or can you sometimes see that its good to do this because the trend is so strong? Its obvious that sometimes the breakout works well, and sometimes buying the breakout of a swing high leads to a deep reversal. But we never usually know, and its only what we do about it which we have control over. So do you really never want to enter late? And if you do.... do you have a rule about what to do if it initially goes against you?
If you introduce time, then you can create a matrix of probabilities of extensions and retracements per time stamped signal.
The nature of a blind spot is that it exists in your blindspot. Broadly, Dr. Nicole LePera’s ‘How to Meet Yourself’ explores the source of self-sabotage as the result of generational trauma. One can glean much from her Twitter feed. Specifically, Jared Tendler’s ‘The Mental Game of Trading’ speaks to your issue. He also does privates. Chances are you not really serious. Harris’s Taxonomy of Trader Types would classify your behavior explicitly.
It doesn't exist in trading unless you can control or manipulate the outcome...I mean technically nobody really controls the outcome as the market will cylce regaradless...but now we are getting into Isaac Asimovian territory. Anyway, there certainly is no such thing as a technical edge as in trading rules or indicator strategies etc...it would be like thinking you can win at blackjack by following the strategy pamphlets they hand out at the door. _
There are no true edges in trading. You can however have semi x ray vision on the blackjack deck and roulette wheel and not get kicked out of the casino for winning alot I guess the trading edge is wisdom, process, philosophy, and timing and leverage...all rolled into one
Your signal will not create reliable causal results...that's the problem. Unless you are projecting previous data forward with any sort of accuracy then its practically useless information. Can you project where price will statistically be in 6 hours? 6 days? 6 weeks? 6 months?