I went into this weekend flat and it's about enough to drive me stir crazy. I always like that Sunday gap, it really is gambling at it's finest. It's been about a year now since I started trading forex. I think my first post was "What is forex and how do you do it?" Another good one was, "Why is the commission on USD.CHF only $2.50 but the commission on CHF/JPY $193?" Forex has been very good to me and quite enjoyable. I'm not sure why everybody doesn't do it. It reminds me of the early days of ES when even a little guy could get a break. at anyrate, I have nothing better to do until 17:15 et when my broker (ib) opens but talk. After that I get a little sullen and withdrawn and don't see the point of it all.
It's all I trade, so naturally, I'd have to be in on a convo about it. Volume in FX is at extreme lows right now, and vols are softer then baby wipes. I think some people are selling shorter dated vols to pay for 1m as for the events coming up in September should bring some volatility. We have the ECB, NFP, FOMC, German Court date, Troika etc... Until then.. I'll be on the 1hr trying to pick off some pips where I can unless we get further development. I think we might have seen a higher squeeze in Euro if it weren't for the SNB.
might have known you'd show up. Just because we don't reply to every post on your journal doesn't mean we don't read it and enjoy it. To be honest with you, I'm not very good at predicting the future, I just put it on and manage it by adding to winners and adding to losers and taking my profits and losses. I was really skeptical about the peg, I never thought it would last this long. Those boys at the SNB are serious, and they say the only way they will break it is if EUR goes too high.
Cool OT. Since I started the journal it's been shitty times in the market. Just need things to get cooking again. I guess you can say we try to predict the future and in a way we do, but I am more inclined to say I am trying to predict the most likely way the pairs will trade based on a few things in context, after some confirmation, which I think is a bit different and very doable. In no way do I need to know exactly what the future holds or do much predicting on that because we will never know. You can wait for it to unfold and be prepared when it does. Throw some small positions on and add as it goes for a position trade or just take quicker trades depending on what's at play and market conditions. Yea the SNB held longer then I expected. An official came out recently saying they could hold it for years... we'll see about that. FX is a tough market to get an edge I think, there are so many factors and players doing different things for different reasons, all effecting price movement in the short-medium term. You have to have some information and stay plugged in at all times IMO. Good techs never hurt either.
Schaeuble talking down Greece. EURUSD vols are actually well-bid, but I would limit vol-bets to 30-days. AUD weakness bodes well for USD against all crosses. USDJPY should see easily see a touch of 80. AUD downside is limited against the USD, as it's already taken a dump. I'll be short EURJPY @98.20, but am preoccupied in short vol on EURUSD.
another poster reccommended a book I wish I had read a year ago called "Currency Trading for Dummies" The one big thing I got out of it was, yes, it's a trillion dollar market, but according to the people that study it, 90% are just speculators like you and me.
"Merkel & Hollande are to meet Tuesday, raising hopes for a break through in debt crisis. Merkel comments she supports Draghi/ECB's conditions for support" that was Friday, and that caused some movement but can we really expect a big breakthrough here?
yeah, you're probably right, you sure were the last time, maybe I'll swap out that short aud for some short jpy
A lot of that volume has to do with the Hot-Potato effect across interbank dealings, offloading and a bunch more shit I don't fully understand structure wise. Liquidity is good but not as good as the "trillion dollar a day" implies across currencies I would think. They are also including swap and forward markets there, we are talking just spot for the most part. I think what really move prices in the day to day is CBs and sovereigns, pension funds, hedge funds and corps.